Escape from Revis Island
As promised, it's time to talk about the upcoming NFL season. I have done my customary picking for fantasy football and believe I have put together a decent team. Of course, I don't do traditional fantasy football (maybe I might decide to jump in before the season starts), but instead I do salary-cap football. If you're not familiar with that, you get $100 million and you spend it on putting together the best team possible. I get a quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, a tight end, a kicker, and a defense. Each week, the value of my players rises or falls depending on how they did in their games. If the value falls, I can reset the player's salary to the lower amount, freeing up a couple mill to buy a better player. It's kinda like the stock market, only I do a lot better with salary cap football than I have done with the actual stock market. I usually start slow, buy the right players, and finish strong.
Anyway, we're at the point now where I can pretty much make predictions on the season. Yeah, there's one week of preseason to go, but teams usually play only the scrubs in the last preseason games (and if that's not an argument for shortening the preseason, I don't know what is), so we're not gonna get any new info on players before the season starts unless there's a freak injury in practice. Or a holdout finally signs and reports to the team... like Darrelle Revis.
And on that note, I may as well start with the New York Jets because not only are they the team I follow, but they also are the ones grabbing most of the non-Brett Favre headlines this preseason. They're all over your TV screen on HBO's "Hard Knocks", with Head Coach Rex Ryan speaking his (bleep)ing mind about every (bleep)ing thing with no (bleep)ing apologies. Ryan has swagger, gives his team swagger, and has them believing they will truly win the Super Bowl this year, Revis or no Revis. This is like the Mets in 1986, with Rex Ryan in the role of Davey Johnson, telling his team, "We're not just gonna win, we're gonna dominate." However, their best defensive player, Revis, is holding out for best-in-the-league money, and there is no sign from anyone that he's going to sign anytime soon. Owner Woody Johnson caused a stir when he said he doesn't think Revis will play this season, Ryan is preparing for life without him (as well as star linebacker Calvin Pace), but since they're not talking about it, the stars of Cortland wound up being guys like "Terminator" John Conner, a backup fullback, and Antonio Cromartie, the other starting cornerback, who has apparently fathered more children than Evander Holyfield.
But America is lapping it up, and HBO must be loving it, because they have a team with storylines people want to watch. The first year of "Hard Knocks" featured the Dallas Cowboys, so nobody outside of Dallas cared, and the only storyline was whether or not T.O. would go off on Romo. Last year, it was the Cincinnati Bengals, so the only storyline was whether or not any more members of the team would land in jail before the season started. This year, the Jets and their coach made themselves the story and made themselves likable and worth watching... unless of course you're a Patriots or Dolphins fan.
So... will the Jets actually win the AFC East? It's hard to pick against New England because they win the division every year, but I'm gonna let my homer-ness win out here. The Jets win the East, the Patriots and Tom Brady with his Justin Bieber haircut get a wild-card. Miami still needs time to gel offensively, and the Buffalo Bills are going nowhere fast... except maybe to Toronto. Or C.J. Spiller could prove to be the second coming, but even so he's not enough to overcome subpar talent everywhere else.
The AFC North will be decided by how good the Pittsburgh Steelers do without Ben Roethlisberger, who is suspended for 4-6 games due to his offseason co-ed shenanigans. If they go 4-2 or better without him, they're a lock. If they go 3-3, they're in good shape. If they go into the toilet, they might not even make the playoffs. I'll go even money on this and say they go 3-3... which will tie them for the division title at the end with Cincinnati. Carson Palmer is believed to be due for a comeback season, and if T.O. doesn't throw a hissy-fit every time Chad Ochocinco catches a touchdown pass, the Bengals will be alright. Baltimore has a stout defense as always, and Joe Flacco is really coming into his own, but the lack of a running game concerns me. I think they fall short of the playoffs this time. Cleveland has a new coach, new QBs, and no hope.
The AFC South is the Colts' division to lose. They will take the division unless Peyton Manning starts to age rapidly. Tennessee is good for a run with Vince Young at QB, but can he win enough games all season and not just at the end of the regular season when the Titans are out of contention? Chris Johnson will have to prove he is not a one-year wonder. Houston fell just shy of their first playoff berth last year, and they are a young team that will only get better, so they'll be in the wild-card mix with the Titans. Jacksonville is in a tough situation. Their fans don't come to the games anymore, they have heart but don't seem to have enough to threaten in a tough division like the South... and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon.
Over in the AFC West, Denver has a 3-headed QB nightmare scenario in the making. Kyle Orton is a decent enough signal-caller, but the paying crowds will want to see Tim Tebow, and Brady Quinn is no slouch either, just not good enough to hang on in Cleveland. I can't see this ending well for anyone involved. San Diego is your favorite in the West; that offense is just too good with Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson (when he returns from suspension), and Antonio Gates. They're always a threat to make the Super Bowl, but the team's collective playoff misery combined with that of coach Norv Turner makes you hesitant to count on them come January. Kansas City has had a year to get things together with Matt Cassel at QB, so they should be improved, but well off the pace in the division. Oakland could either improve a lot with Jason Campbell in charge, or he could just be another failed import for an organization that can't get out of its own way. I say the latter.
As for the NFC, I start in Philadelphia because I live here, and the biggest story in town is will Kevin Kolb reward the fans who spat on Donovan McNabb for 11 years by proving that he's a better QB than McNabb ever was? Uh, no. Not even close, in fact, at least based on his preseason performance that saw him lead the Eagles offense to a grand total of ZERO touchdowns. Their only two first-half TDs in the preseason to date came with Michael Vick getting the snaps. So you already have a good portion of Eagles Nation calling for Vick to be the starter, but mostly PhillyFan is torn between dismissing it as just the preseason or already labeling Kolb a dismal failure. He won't be a failure but he won't be the Messiah either. 8-8 at best for the Eagles, no playoffs, and Andy Reid probably loses his job after 12 years, as fans throw him under the bus right behind McNabb.
It'll be either Dallas or the Giants atop the NFC East this year, and a bounce-back season is expected for Big Blue. They have too much talent to repeat last year's subpar showing (and if they do repeat it, Tom Coughlin will likely join Reid on the coaching unemployment line). I see them winning the East, because Dallas, despite their solid defense, just seems like all hype and no substance. Have been for years. Tony Romo finally had a decent December and won a playoff game, and you want to believe that with rookie wideout Dez Bryant in tow, they'll put it all together, but I need to see it to believe it. When I think of Romo, I think of failure. So Dallas will fall short... and instead of Coughlin getting whacked, Wade Phillips may get the boot. So I'm basically saying that 2 NFC East coaches will lose their jobs after this season. Since it's Mike Shanahan's first season coaching the Redskins, he's in no danger of losing his job (although with Daniel Snyder, you never know). The transplanted McNabb is already banged up, which makes you wonder how far he can still take a team, but when you think about it, he's got a veteran back (Clinton Portis), a good tight end (Chris Cooley), and some talent but not much at receiver. That's what he had with the Eagles more often than not.
The NFC North is a toss-up between Brett Favre present (Minnesota) and Brett Favre past (Green Bay). Aaron Rodgers is going to be the first pick in a lot of fantasy drafts, and the Packer offense is insanely good. The Vikings' offense is good too... when Favre's not flipping out because he's not throwing enough... while Adrian Peterson becomes the most underused star running back in football. But #4 keeps coming back because we deserve him, so he says, but he's just not going to get that brass ring he's looking for in another Super Bowl title. I picked the Pack over the Vikes last year and I was wrong, but I'm not afraid to try it again. Chicago is a middle-of-the-pack team until Jay Cutler truly becomes the star QB he's supposed to be. Detroit actually has reason to be optimistic this year with an improving Matthew Stafford backed by great rookies on offense (Jahvid Best) and defense (Ndamukong Suh). Of course, optimism in Detroit is the feeling you can win 5 games.
New Orleans is the toast of the NFL world after winning the Super Bowl last year, but they've kinda been buried in Jets hype, Favre drama, and all the other subplots of the preseason. Is it possible that a defending champion could come from out of nowhere to win it again? Well, the Saints will win the NFC South, that's for sure. They're better than Atlanta, despite the fact that the Falcons do have a solid team. Carolina won't be a factor until Jimmy Clausen comes into his own at quarterback and they adequately replace Julius Peppers on defense. Tampa Bay has much rebuilding to do.
Finally, the San Francisco 49ers are the trendy pick to win the NFC West. They have a fired-up coach in Mike Singletary who may well be the NFC's answer to Rex Ryan. Since they play out west, we don't know much about the team besides Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. Losing Michael Crabtree to injury will hurt (although they played without him for most of last year because of his holdout), but they have a better chance to win the division than before, because Arizona said goodbye to the retiring Kurt Warner and may not have found an adequate replacement. Their defense is still shaky and their hold on the Worst Division in Football was never as iron-clad last year as you'd expect from a team returning everyone from a Super Bowl run the year before. Seattle is pretty much starting over with new coach Pete Carroll, so they'll need at least a year to get things together. St. Louis is in the same boat with new QB Sam Bradford.
So here (with predicted records) are my 2010 picks... playoff teams get an A-Rod style *:
AFC East: NY Jets 12-4*, New England 10-6*, Miami 7-9, Buffalo 3-13
AFC North: Pittsburgh 10-6*, Cincinnati 10-6, Baltimore 9-7, Cleveland 3-13
AFC South: Indianapolis 12-4*, Houston 10-6*, Tennessee 9-7, Jacksonville 4-12
AFC West: San Diego 13-3*, Denver 8-8, Kansas City 5-11, Oakland 2-14
NFC East: NY Giants 11-5*, Dallas 10-6, Washington 8-8, Philadelphia 7-9
NFC North: Green Bay 12-4*, Minnesota 11-5*, Chicago 7-9, Detroit 5-11
NFC South: New Orleans 13-3*, Atlanta 11-5*, Carolina 5-11, Tampa Bay 4-12
NFC West: San Francisco 10-6*, Arizona 8-8, Seattle 4-12, St. Louis 2-14
Super Bowl: Depends... if Revis ends his holdout and plays this year, it's NY Jets vs. New Orleans. If he doesn't, it's San Diego vs. New Orleans... first one to 50 wins.
Anyway, we're at the point now where I can pretty much make predictions on the season. Yeah, there's one week of preseason to go, but teams usually play only the scrubs in the last preseason games (and if that's not an argument for shortening the preseason, I don't know what is), so we're not gonna get any new info on players before the season starts unless there's a freak injury in practice. Or a holdout finally signs and reports to the team... like Darrelle Revis.
And on that note, I may as well start with the New York Jets because not only are they the team I follow, but they also are the ones grabbing most of the non-Brett Favre headlines this preseason. They're all over your TV screen on HBO's "Hard Knocks", with Head Coach Rex Ryan speaking his (bleep)ing mind about every (bleep)ing thing with no (bleep)ing apologies. Ryan has swagger, gives his team swagger, and has them believing they will truly win the Super Bowl this year, Revis or no Revis. This is like the Mets in 1986, with Rex Ryan in the role of Davey Johnson, telling his team, "We're not just gonna win, we're gonna dominate." However, their best defensive player, Revis, is holding out for best-in-the-league money, and there is no sign from anyone that he's going to sign anytime soon. Owner Woody Johnson caused a stir when he said he doesn't think Revis will play this season, Ryan is preparing for life without him (as well as star linebacker Calvin Pace), but since they're not talking about it, the stars of Cortland wound up being guys like "Terminator" John Conner, a backup fullback, and Antonio Cromartie, the other starting cornerback, who has apparently fathered more children than Evander Holyfield.
But America is lapping it up, and HBO must be loving it, because they have a team with storylines people want to watch. The first year of "Hard Knocks" featured the Dallas Cowboys, so nobody outside of Dallas cared, and the only storyline was whether or not T.O. would go off on Romo. Last year, it was the Cincinnati Bengals, so the only storyline was whether or not any more members of the team would land in jail before the season started. This year, the Jets and their coach made themselves the story and made themselves likable and worth watching... unless of course you're a Patriots or Dolphins fan.
So... will the Jets actually win the AFC East? It's hard to pick against New England because they win the division every year, but I'm gonna let my homer-ness win out here. The Jets win the East, the Patriots and Tom Brady with his Justin Bieber haircut get a wild-card. Miami still needs time to gel offensively, and the Buffalo Bills are going nowhere fast... except maybe to Toronto. Or C.J. Spiller could prove to be the second coming, but even so he's not enough to overcome subpar talent everywhere else.
The AFC North will be decided by how good the Pittsburgh Steelers do without Ben Roethlisberger, who is suspended for 4-6 games due to his offseason co-ed shenanigans. If they go 4-2 or better without him, they're a lock. If they go 3-3, they're in good shape. If they go into the toilet, they might not even make the playoffs. I'll go even money on this and say they go 3-3... which will tie them for the division title at the end with Cincinnati. Carson Palmer is believed to be due for a comeback season, and if T.O. doesn't throw a hissy-fit every time Chad Ochocinco catches a touchdown pass, the Bengals will be alright. Baltimore has a stout defense as always, and Joe Flacco is really coming into his own, but the lack of a running game concerns me. I think they fall short of the playoffs this time. Cleveland has a new coach, new QBs, and no hope.
The AFC South is the Colts' division to lose. They will take the division unless Peyton Manning starts to age rapidly. Tennessee is good for a run with Vince Young at QB, but can he win enough games all season and not just at the end of the regular season when the Titans are out of contention? Chris Johnson will have to prove he is not a one-year wonder. Houston fell just shy of their first playoff berth last year, and they are a young team that will only get better, so they'll be in the wild-card mix with the Titans. Jacksonville is in a tough situation. Their fans don't come to the games anymore, they have heart but don't seem to have enough to threaten in a tough division like the South... and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon.
Over in the AFC West, Denver has a 3-headed QB nightmare scenario in the making. Kyle Orton is a decent enough signal-caller, but the paying crowds will want to see Tim Tebow, and Brady Quinn is no slouch either, just not good enough to hang on in Cleveland. I can't see this ending well for anyone involved. San Diego is your favorite in the West; that offense is just too good with Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson (when he returns from suspension), and Antonio Gates. They're always a threat to make the Super Bowl, but the team's collective playoff misery combined with that of coach Norv Turner makes you hesitant to count on them come January. Kansas City has had a year to get things together with Matt Cassel at QB, so they should be improved, but well off the pace in the division. Oakland could either improve a lot with Jason Campbell in charge, or he could just be another failed import for an organization that can't get out of its own way. I say the latter.
As for the NFC, I start in Philadelphia because I live here, and the biggest story in town is will Kevin Kolb reward the fans who spat on Donovan McNabb for 11 years by proving that he's a better QB than McNabb ever was? Uh, no. Not even close, in fact, at least based on his preseason performance that saw him lead the Eagles offense to a grand total of ZERO touchdowns. Their only two first-half TDs in the preseason to date came with Michael Vick getting the snaps. So you already have a good portion of Eagles Nation calling for Vick to be the starter, but mostly PhillyFan is torn between dismissing it as just the preseason or already labeling Kolb a dismal failure. He won't be a failure but he won't be the Messiah either. 8-8 at best for the Eagles, no playoffs, and Andy Reid probably loses his job after 12 years, as fans throw him under the bus right behind McNabb.
It'll be either Dallas or the Giants atop the NFC East this year, and a bounce-back season is expected for Big Blue. They have too much talent to repeat last year's subpar showing (and if they do repeat it, Tom Coughlin will likely join Reid on the coaching unemployment line). I see them winning the East, because Dallas, despite their solid defense, just seems like all hype and no substance. Have been for years. Tony Romo finally had a decent December and won a playoff game, and you want to believe that with rookie wideout Dez Bryant in tow, they'll put it all together, but I need to see it to believe it. When I think of Romo, I think of failure. So Dallas will fall short... and instead of Coughlin getting whacked, Wade Phillips may get the boot. So I'm basically saying that 2 NFC East coaches will lose their jobs after this season. Since it's Mike Shanahan's first season coaching the Redskins, he's in no danger of losing his job (although with Daniel Snyder, you never know). The transplanted McNabb is already banged up, which makes you wonder how far he can still take a team, but when you think about it, he's got a veteran back (Clinton Portis), a good tight end (Chris Cooley), and some talent but not much at receiver. That's what he had with the Eagles more often than not.
The NFC North is a toss-up between Brett Favre present (Minnesota) and Brett Favre past (Green Bay). Aaron Rodgers is going to be the first pick in a lot of fantasy drafts, and the Packer offense is insanely good. The Vikings' offense is good too... when Favre's not flipping out because he's not throwing enough... while Adrian Peterson becomes the most underused star running back in football. But #4 keeps coming back because we deserve him, so he says, but he's just not going to get that brass ring he's looking for in another Super Bowl title. I picked the Pack over the Vikes last year and I was wrong, but I'm not afraid to try it again. Chicago is a middle-of-the-pack team until Jay Cutler truly becomes the star QB he's supposed to be. Detroit actually has reason to be optimistic this year with an improving Matthew Stafford backed by great rookies on offense (Jahvid Best) and defense (Ndamukong Suh). Of course, optimism in Detroit is the feeling you can win 5 games.
New Orleans is the toast of the NFL world after winning the Super Bowl last year, but they've kinda been buried in Jets hype, Favre drama, and all the other subplots of the preseason. Is it possible that a defending champion could come from out of nowhere to win it again? Well, the Saints will win the NFC South, that's for sure. They're better than Atlanta, despite the fact that the Falcons do have a solid team. Carolina won't be a factor until Jimmy Clausen comes into his own at quarterback and they adequately replace Julius Peppers on defense. Tampa Bay has much rebuilding to do.
Finally, the San Francisco 49ers are the trendy pick to win the NFC West. They have a fired-up coach in Mike Singletary who may well be the NFC's answer to Rex Ryan. Since they play out west, we don't know much about the team besides Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. Losing Michael Crabtree to injury will hurt (although they played without him for most of last year because of his holdout), but they have a better chance to win the division than before, because Arizona said goodbye to the retiring Kurt Warner and may not have found an adequate replacement. Their defense is still shaky and their hold on the Worst Division in Football was never as iron-clad last year as you'd expect from a team returning everyone from a Super Bowl run the year before. Seattle is pretty much starting over with new coach Pete Carroll, so they'll need at least a year to get things together. St. Louis is in the same boat with new QB Sam Bradford.
So here (with predicted records) are my 2010 picks... playoff teams get an A-Rod style *:
AFC East: NY Jets 12-4*, New England 10-6*, Miami 7-9, Buffalo 3-13
AFC North: Pittsburgh 10-6*, Cincinnati 10-6, Baltimore 9-7, Cleveland 3-13
AFC South: Indianapolis 12-4*, Houston 10-6*, Tennessee 9-7, Jacksonville 4-12
AFC West: San Diego 13-3*, Denver 8-8, Kansas City 5-11, Oakland 2-14
NFC East: NY Giants 11-5*, Dallas 10-6, Washington 8-8, Philadelphia 7-9
NFC North: Green Bay 12-4*, Minnesota 11-5*, Chicago 7-9, Detroit 5-11
NFC South: New Orleans 13-3*, Atlanta 11-5*, Carolina 5-11, Tampa Bay 4-12
NFC West: San Francisco 10-6*, Arizona 8-8, Seattle 4-12, St. Louis 2-14
Super Bowl: Depends... if Revis ends his holdout and plays this year, it's NY Jets vs. New Orleans. If he doesn't, it's San Diego vs. New Orleans... first one to 50 wins.
Labels: football
posted by Dave | 5:49 PM
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