I'm Retiring From Football Picks... No, Wait, I'm Not
Another football season approaches, and now that we’ve gotten the obligatory Brett Favre nonsense out of the way, we can all take an objective look at what will happen in football this year. Until someone important gets injured, of course. After taking part in numerous fantasy football leagues these last few years, I can tell you that dabbling in the fantasy realm is a lot like making predictions for the whole season. If something goes wrong like an injury, team scandal, arrest, holdout, anything like that, you’re screwed. Of course, in fantasy, you can grab someone off the waiver wire and maybe save your season.
We’ll start with the college scene because that starts first, a week from Saturday in fact. There are two schools of thought when it comes to this year’s Syracuse Orange. You’re either being optimistic because last season you saw a real change in the culture of the team in Doug Marrone’s first year as coach, or you’re being negative… because you’re always negative. As such, you still think Marrone was a bad hire, all the players he ran off the team was not a sign of a new regime but a sign of a control freak who doesn’t understand today’s college football player, and the players who are left are two-star recruits who chose SU over Hofstra and will never win more than 4 games in a season.
Despite the “sky is falling” rhetoric from various Internet trolls, there is indeed reason to feel that something good is building up on the Hill this year. To those who think Ryan Nassib is inexperienced because Greg Paulus started every game last year, I point out that Nassib was in for plenty of action, did alright in his limited time, and even that gives him more experience than most incoming starters at most major programs. No, he didn’t get to fill in for an injured star during the national championship game like Garrett Gilbert at Texas, but Nassib did play more overall. Delone Carter is back (much to the chagrin of those who were hoping for a felony black mark on Marrone’s record), so the running game is there. Those who think this will be a one-dimensional offense do not recognize Alec Lemon’s contributions last year or the other available talent at receiver and tight end. The recurring problem seems to be that people equate lack of experience with lack of ability. Somebody tell that to Pitt’s star running back; he had no experience going into last year and did just fine, thank you.
The defense is solid; it finished in the top 30 nationally in several categories and returns Doug Hogue, Derrell Smith, and Chandler Jones. The secondary (as usual) will be watched for signs of improvement. The special teams was atrocious last year and cost the Orange a win at Louisville, but didn’t cost Bob Casullo his job. That better be a primary focus this season or heads will roll; just ask the offensive coaches who got whacked last year.
The schedule is pretty easy in the early going… Syracuse should beat Akron, Maine, and Colgate. The Orange plays at Washington in week two and they will go in as an underdog because of the Huskies’ Heisman candidate QB, Jake Locker. Locker decimated Greg Robinson’s awful defense in his first career start in ’07 at the Dome, but this is a different SU now. Marrone will finally have his first road win after the Akron game, but this will be a chance at a major road scalp. I don’t see it happening, but it will be close. So that’s a 3-1 start going into Big East play. Syracuse gets Louisville in the Dome this year, so I pencil that in as a win. This team is good enough to beat a South Florida or Rutgers again, but those are road games so consider that. UConn is at home and I have to think Syracuse will do a better job defensively than they did last year in Storrs. Therefore, I call an Orange win over the Huskies, and one of three against USF, Rutgers, and Boston College (BC = Northwestern last year, a bowl-worthy team that we can beat). They won’t beat Pitt, West Virginia, or Cincinnati. That gets SU to 6-6 this year, short of a bowl bid but still improved, and the losses will be competitive. If they can steal one more win from the USF-Rutgers-BC portion of the schedule, they go to a bowl and shut the pessimists up at least for a little while. But it’s more likely they’ll view 6-6 as a failure because we didn’t make a bowl game. Whatever.
Here in Philadelphia, there’s a lot of excitement about Temple football… wait a minute, just had to stop to make sure I wasn’t being completely delusional. Okay, yes, this is really happening. The Owls went 9-4 last year, made their first bowl game in 30 years, got 2 votes in both the coaches and writers’ preseason polls, and are a trendy pick to win the MAC this year. And they have a “Heisman candidate” in RB Bernard Pierce. I put that in quotes because despite the best efforts to market Pierce (and believe me, they are, with billboards all over the city), he is NOT on anybody’s Heisman radar right now. He’s only a sophomore, the last time we saw him he was leaving the bowl game with an injured knee, and because this is Temple we’re talking about, they’d have to go undefeated for Pierce to even have a chance to sniff the Heisman. That being said, they get an immediate chance to avenge a painful loss from last year when they play defending FCS (as in Division 1-AA) national champ Villanova a week from Friday. Might be worth your time to check out… it’s certainly a more appealing opening week matchup than, say, Syracuse vs. Akron.
As usual, I close with my undergraduate and high school alma maters. Susquehanna made the Division III playoffs last year for the first time in nearly 20 years, but this year they join a new conference, so you have to figure there will be a period of adjustment. With the talent they have returning, they’ll win some games, but a 3rd-place Centennial Conference finish is likely. As for West Genny, my only wish for Joe Corley and the Wildcats is PLEASE do better than 1-8 this year! Going from ’07 state champs to ’08 sectional finalist to the absolute dregs of Section III was not a pleasant thing to watch. Can we at least get back to the postseason in 2010?
The pros start later, so I’ll pick them next time, and I’ll have a fantasy team by then so I can properly agonize with the rest of you…
We’ll start with the college scene because that starts first, a week from Saturday in fact. There are two schools of thought when it comes to this year’s Syracuse Orange. You’re either being optimistic because last season you saw a real change in the culture of the team in Doug Marrone’s first year as coach, or you’re being negative… because you’re always negative. As such, you still think Marrone was a bad hire, all the players he ran off the team was not a sign of a new regime but a sign of a control freak who doesn’t understand today’s college football player, and the players who are left are two-star recruits who chose SU over Hofstra and will never win more than 4 games in a season.
Despite the “sky is falling” rhetoric from various Internet trolls, there is indeed reason to feel that something good is building up on the Hill this year. To those who think Ryan Nassib is inexperienced because Greg Paulus started every game last year, I point out that Nassib was in for plenty of action, did alright in his limited time, and even that gives him more experience than most incoming starters at most major programs. No, he didn’t get to fill in for an injured star during the national championship game like Garrett Gilbert at Texas, but Nassib did play more overall. Delone Carter is back (much to the chagrin of those who were hoping for a felony black mark on Marrone’s record), so the running game is there. Those who think this will be a one-dimensional offense do not recognize Alec Lemon’s contributions last year or the other available talent at receiver and tight end. The recurring problem seems to be that people equate lack of experience with lack of ability. Somebody tell that to Pitt’s star running back; he had no experience going into last year and did just fine, thank you.
The defense is solid; it finished in the top 30 nationally in several categories and returns Doug Hogue, Derrell Smith, and Chandler Jones. The secondary (as usual) will be watched for signs of improvement. The special teams was atrocious last year and cost the Orange a win at Louisville, but didn’t cost Bob Casullo his job. That better be a primary focus this season or heads will roll; just ask the offensive coaches who got whacked last year.
The schedule is pretty easy in the early going… Syracuse should beat Akron, Maine, and Colgate. The Orange plays at Washington in week two and they will go in as an underdog because of the Huskies’ Heisman candidate QB, Jake Locker. Locker decimated Greg Robinson’s awful defense in his first career start in ’07 at the Dome, but this is a different SU now. Marrone will finally have his first road win after the Akron game, but this will be a chance at a major road scalp. I don’t see it happening, but it will be close. So that’s a 3-1 start going into Big East play. Syracuse gets Louisville in the Dome this year, so I pencil that in as a win. This team is good enough to beat a South Florida or Rutgers again, but those are road games so consider that. UConn is at home and I have to think Syracuse will do a better job defensively than they did last year in Storrs. Therefore, I call an Orange win over the Huskies, and one of three against USF, Rutgers, and Boston College (BC = Northwestern last year, a bowl-worthy team that we can beat). They won’t beat Pitt, West Virginia, or Cincinnati. That gets SU to 6-6 this year, short of a bowl bid but still improved, and the losses will be competitive. If they can steal one more win from the USF-Rutgers-BC portion of the schedule, they go to a bowl and shut the pessimists up at least for a little while. But it’s more likely they’ll view 6-6 as a failure because we didn’t make a bowl game. Whatever.
Here in Philadelphia, there’s a lot of excitement about Temple football… wait a minute, just had to stop to make sure I wasn’t being completely delusional. Okay, yes, this is really happening. The Owls went 9-4 last year, made their first bowl game in 30 years, got 2 votes in both the coaches and writers’ preseason polls, and are a trendy pick to win the MAC this year. And they have a “Heisman candidate” in RB Bernard Pierce. I put that in quotes because despite the best efforts to market Pierce (and believe me, they are, with billboards all over the city), he is NOT on anybody’s Heisman radar right now. He’s only a sophomore, the last time we saw him he was leaving the bowl game with an injured knee, and because this is Temple we’re talking about, they’d have to go undefeated for Pierce to even have a chance to sniff the Heisman. That being said, they get an immediate chance to avenge a painful loss from last year when they play defending FCS (as in Division 1-AA) national champ Villanova a week from Friday. Might be worth your time to check out… it’s certainly a more appealing opening week matchup than, say, Syracuse vs. Akron.
As usual, I close with my undergraduate and high school alma maters. Susquehanna made the Division III playoffs last year for the first time in nearly 20 years, but this year they join a new conference, so you have to figure there will be a period of adjustment. With the talent they have returning, they’ll win some games, but a 3rd-place Centennial Conference finish is likely. As for West Genny, my only wish for Joe Corley and the Wildcats is PLEASE do better than 1-8 this year! Going from ’07 state champs to ’08 sectional finalist to the absolute dregs of Section III was not a pleasant thing to watch. Can we at least get back to the postseason in 2010?
The pros start later, so I’ll pick them next time, and I’ll have a fantasy team by then so I can properly agonize with the rest of you…
Labels: college football, Syracuse
posted by Dave | 10:40 AM
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