It's Way Too Early For This, Part 2

First of all, even though this is to be a column discussing pro football picks, I need to say something about the labor deal reached today in baseball: OKAY, SO I WAS WRONG!!! SO THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A STRIKE!!! I WAS WRONG, IT HAPPENS!!!

Thank you.

Now, on to the NFL picks, and we'll start in the NFC East. Why the NFC East? Because that's where Steve Spurrier is. You've certainly heard about all the fireworks he's caused this preseason, throwing on 4th and 1 with a big lead against the Niners, taking shots at other coaches, being accused of only being good against second-stringers. The point is, he's the focus, and as long as he's the focus, the players have the pressure off, and that may be the best thing for them. They need a little time to jell, but they could make a playoff run However, they will not win the division, that spot has already been reserved for the Philadelphia Eagles. Their offense, as usual, is suspect, but never count out Donovan McNabb and his ability to create offense. The wild card out of this division is a race between the resurgent Giants and Spurrier's Redskins. Dallas, meanwhile, is probably mad that Arizona is no longer in their division, so they will finish last.

Now we have a brand-new division setup this year in the NFL: 4 divisions of 4 teams each, which means that you only have to be better than three teams to make the playoffs as division champion. Keep that in mind as we go to the NFC South, where 9-7 may win you the division. This is because between New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay, none of these teams scream Super Bowl contender. Sure the Saints have Aaron Brooks at QB and the Bucs have a potentially good offense with Brad Johnson and Keyshawn Johnson, but now they have no running back (except maybe Alstott, but he's a fullback by trade), and a new head coach. History tells us when a coach is whacked after a good season, the team goes down before it goes up. The Saints, therefore, win the division with a 9-7 record. The Bucs finish second, unless Jon Gruden suddenly decides to make former Bills QB Rob Johnson the starter, then they finish last. Atlanta will improve in Michael Vick's first year at QB, but he can't play defense for them, so the best they will do is .500, and Carolina, of course, is Carolina. They'll end that 15-game losing streak eventually, but I honestly can't think of an exact date or game when it will happen.

In the NFC North, the rest of the former Central teams go at it, but Green Bay has regained its championship form of years past, and they will give Chicago a run. Whether or not the Bears repeat as division champs depends on whether or not last year's top rookies, Anthony Thomas and David Terrell, can avoid a sophomore slump. If they falter, the Packers are right there. Detroit will be much improved this season on offense with a healthy James Stewart and rookie Joey Harrington eventually ascending to the starting role at QB, and that will help them avoid last year's 0-13 start and also the North cellar. Minnesota jettisoned their head coach for one bad year; Mike Tice has to pick up the pieces, and it won't be easy without the leadership of now-retired Cris Carter.

The NFC West will come down to two games: Niners at Rams and Rams at Niners. All else is moot, because these two teams can beat everyone else. It's a shame only one can win the division, and the other will have to be the 5-seed as the top wild card. Meanwhile, you also have the transplanted Seattle Seahawks in a new stadium and the Arizona Cardinals. That's really all I can say about those two teams, they'll be there; they have no shot at the division, probably no shot at a wild card because they have 4 automatic losses to the Rams and Niners, and they haven't been able to prove to be any better than mediocre in recent years. As for the Seahawks, losing Trent Dilfer for a while hurts big.

Over to the AFC, where the Patriots chances of repeating as East champs were greatly enhanced the Colts getting shifted to the new AFC South (Indy in the South and Miami in the East? Oh, that NFL geography...) That leaves the competition from the Jets, who will be 9-7 every season forever more, a weak Miami team (even with Ricky Williams), and the joke that is the Buffalo Bills. That gives the Pats the division by default. For all of you who think that the Bills will be the miracle team of the season because they now have Drew Bledsoe, I will remind you that the eventual champion Patriots started 0-2 with Bledsoe at QB, after 6-10 the year before. 'Nuff said.

Switching the Colts to the AFC South gives them a whole new division to go with their new coach, Tony Dungy. We know Dungy is a good coach (too bad Tampa Bay didn't), and with the offense set in stone, that gives a defensive-minded coach a chance to focus on fixing the Colts D. The combination is a formula to not only give Indy the division easily, but also home field throughout the playoffs. The Titans will be back; you know Eddie George will not allow himself to have 2 sub-1000 yard rushing seasons in a row, and they have rebuilt their defense back into the stellar unit that got them to the Super Bowl in '99. Jacksonville still has some rebuilding to do, Mark Brunell's not getting any younger, and time may be running out on Tom Coughlin. Houston is an expansion team, David Carr is a rookie, and he doesn't have much of an offensive line. Every preseason highlight I saw of him was him either getting sacked or running for his life. It's not going to be pretty at Reliant Stadium this year.

In the North, Pittsburgh has a pretty open road to the division title. Now things could go wrong; Jerome Bettis could get hurt, Kordell Stewart could turn into the Kordell of pre-2001, the D may suffer from having to replace too many good players too many years in a row, but I don't see that happening enough to keep them out of first. Meanwhile, forget what you've heard about Baltimore. I know there are some people who think that a team with 19 rookies as part of a salry cap-overhauled roster cannot be that good. Baltimore Sun columnist Mike Preston said that the Ravens would only win 4 or 5 games this year, but that of course is because Preston has it in for Brian Billick and would love to see nothing less than a godawful season that gets Billick fired. Sorry, Mike, I still think they're a playoff contender, especially with a healthy Jamal Lewis and Ray Lewis and Peter Boulware still anchoring the D. Cleveland is improving, no doubt, but I still don't think they have enough for a playoff run. The Bengals are, well, the Bengals; you can have all the optimism you want out in Cincy, it ain't gonna make any difference.

Finally, the West: Denver is loaded on offense. Terrell Davis retires, just bring in Clinton Portis, although Portis does have some fumblitis he needs to shake off. Brian Griese should bounce back and prove he's worth the big contract he got last year. Oakland lost Gruden, and its success with him. Kansas City is still mediocre, and the Chargers will improve a little with Drew Brees at QB, but they still have a year or two to go to be contenders.

So, here's the Reader's Digest version...

NFC East- Philadelphia 11-5, Washington 9-7, NY Giants 9-7, Dallas 4-12
NFC South- New Orleans 9-7, Tampa Bay 8-8, Atlanta 8-8, Carolina 2-14
NFC North- Green Bay 12-4, Chicago 11-5, Detroit 6-10, Minnesota 4-12
NFC West- St. Louis 14-2, San Francisco 13-3, Seattle 6-10, Arizona 3-13

AFC East- New England 11-5, NY Jets 9-7, Miami 8-8, Buffalo 5-11
AFC South- Indianapolis 12-4, Tennessee 10-6, Jacksonville 6-10, Houston 3-13
AFC North- Pittsburgh 11-5, Baltimore 9-7, Cleveland 8-8, Cincinnati 4-12
AFC West- Denver 10-6, Oakland 8-8, Kansas City 7-9, San Diego 6-10