Last Year Was Awesome... Let's Mess It Up
As I watch the Opening Night game at the Marlins' new "fish tank," I think about the optimism most teams' fans have when the season begins. On Opening Day, everyone is 0-0... unless you're the Mariners and A's, who are both already 1-1. You never know what's going to happen during the season, so maybe, just maybe your team will defy the odds and pull off the incredible... and if your team is predicted to be a contender, you hope they'll meet expectations. Of course, Mets fans like myself would be the exception this year, but I already vented about that in my last blog entry.
This year, the optimism a lot of teams' fans have is justified because there is a greater possibility of their teams making the playoffs. Major League Baseball, in its infinite wisdom, added another wild-card team in both leagues, meaning that 10 out of 30 teams now make the playoffs. No, it's not 12 out of 30 like the NFL, or 16 out of 30 like the NHL and NBA, but it's still a lot, and like those other teams, it increases the possibility that the year's top teams (like last year's Phillies) will flame out in the early rounds and we won't have a super-team win it all as they deserve. It also increases the possibility that teams will make the playoffs when they don't necessarily deserve to. Particularly with a one-and-done playoff game that could potentially tip a 85-77 team into the NLDS over a 94-win team that barely missed winning its division.
How ironic that ESPN started the Opening Night broadcast by showing the moment-by-moment highlights of the last night of the 2011 regular season; that night was so exciting, so riveting... and under the new playoff system would have been so IRRELEVANT. Because the Red Sox, Rays, Braves, and Cardinals would have all been assured of playoff spots entering that final night if we were working with two wild cards last year. They would have only been playing for home field in the "play-in game." And therefore you see the problem with this new setup. By watering down the playoffs, you are actually ensuring that exciting nights like last September 28th DON'T happen. And worse yet, if we'd had the 2012 playoff setup in place last year, you would have the Braves and Red Sox backing into the playoffs... imploding yes, but not in historic fashion, especially if they had both rebounded to win the "play-in game" over the Cards and Rays, respectively. Two teams making the playoffs essentially by default and then having a chance to bounce the hotter, perhaps more deserving teams.
But this is Major League Baseball under Commandant Selig... they don't necessarily make moves with "the best interests of baseball" in mind anymore. Like that tie in the 2002 All-Star Game... or the "playing for World Series home field advantage" incentive added the next year. Don't get me wrong; I got used to the 3-division, wild-card format pretty quickly once it finally was implemented after the 1994-95 strike. However, that was put in place to reward really good teams that don't win a division. This new setup potentially "rewards" okay teams. Baseball is special because even when an 85-win Cardinals team wins it all (like in 2006), they got in the playoffs because they WON THEIR DIVISION. They didn't get in by winning 85 games, finishing 3rd, but squeezing into the 2nd wild-card spot.
So let's get on with the predictions of who will fill those 10 playoff spots, starting with the National League. All the added playoff spot means in the NL is that 3 teams from the NL East will make the postseason instead of 2. Yay, a 3rd-place team making the playoffs! Anyway, here in Philadelphia, fans are in full-on panic mode because they can feel the championship window closing on their team. Ryan Howard blew out his Achilles on the last swing of the season, Chase Utley's knees are declining quickly, and that leaves the middle of the order to such luminaries as Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix. Yes, you have the 3 aces (Halladay, Lee, and Hamels), and 4th-ace-in-training Vance Worley, but as the Cardinals proved last year, if it comes down to pitching and scratching out runs in the postseason, it's anyone's series (or play-in game if it comes to that).
Meanwhile, you have the now-Miami Marlins and their young core of talent helped by big-money acquisitions Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell, not to mention the hiring of big-mouth manager Ozzie Guillen. You also have the Atlanta Braves, looking to atone for their 2011 collapse, and still with the talent to be there at the end of the season. You also have the Washington Nationals... take a moment to let that sink in. THE NATIONALS ARE LEGIT CONTENDERS. And yeah, I've said this before about the Nats, but every time they realize they don't quite have enough pieces yet, they either draft them or sign them to big-money contracts. There's an awful lot riding on Stephen Strasburg's surgically-repaired shoulder, however, and with his mandated innings limit, the Nats could potentially face the all-important September stretch run (and playoffs if they make it) without their ace. I think the Phillies will somehow find a way to get that 6th straight division title, because they always come on in the 2nd half of seasons, and that's when they should be getting the big bats back. With the Marlins needing time to put it all together, that leaves them trying to keep up with the Phils down the stretch, and I just don't think it will happen, but it will leave Miami with a wild-card. Atlanta gets the 2nd NL wild-card, as Washington fades in September with Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson forced to pitch the big games and Strasburg maxed out on innings, unable to push them over the hump. Yay, a 3rd-place team in the playoffs...
On to the NL Central... first of all, let me say every time I see that MLB2012 PlayStation commercial with the Cubs finally winning it all, it makes me want the Cubs to win the World Series. And then the commercial ends and I realize the Cubs have no chance in hell this year. So who does have a chance? Milwaukee still does, despite the loss of Prince Fielder to free agency. The Cardinals still do, despite the loss of Albert Pujols to free agency. Cincinnati does; 2011 was a big letdown for this team that was supposedly on the rise, and I get the feeling 2012 will be make-or-break for the Reds as presently constituted. Hell, even Pittsburgh has a chance after they contended well into 2011, until an awful safe/out call at home plate in late July sent the Pirates spiraling to their usual sub-.500 finish. I'm tempted to put the 4 teams in a hat and pick one... but I will take the Reds to bounce back to 2010 form.
Over in the NL West, the Giants are a trendy pick to reassume their 2010 form as well, the form that won them a World Championship, mostly because Buster Posey is back for a full season. They certainly have the horses and the stretch-run experience, but all I can think of is how many runs they will give up because Bruce Bochy's overprotective "don't block the plate" stance on Posey. I can see 3rd base coaches giving the green light to many more runners against the Giants than any other team, knowing that if it's a close play at the plate, Posey will get out of the way. Arizona was very impressive in outlasting the Giants for the division last year, and they are definitely a postseason contender once again. The Dodgers have Magic... as in Magic Johnson, new part-owner of the franchise. With the McCourt debacle behind them, they can focus on baseball, but I just don't see them getting back to October this year. Colorado and San Diego are non-factors. Despite the extra runs scored on Posey, I take San Francisco over the D-Backs for the division.
Over to the American League... how's it feel to be a Detroit fan right now? I can't tell you the last time a team from Detroit other than the Red Wings entered a season with so much in the way of expectations. You have the team that got to the ALCS last year, with the best pitcher in baseball (yeah, you heard me Phillies fans, Verlander's better than Roy Halladay) and some capable arms backing him up, and the Tigers go out and get Prince Fielder to MORE than fill the gap created by Victor Martinez's ACL tear. Detroit is the runaway favorite to win the AL Central, and with big question marks on the usual AL East contenders, they may well be the favorite to win the AL. I don't know about October, but the Tigers will certainly take the Central. Minnesota will bounce back from its horrible 2011; Target Field will not prove to be as much of the Twins' undoing as Citi Field was for the Mets. Still, the Twins' best shot at October is to grab a wild-card. Cleveland needs Ubaldo Jimenez to return to his 2009-2010 Rockies numbers... after he sits out his suspension for drilling Troy Tulowitzki in HIS Rockies number. If he does, the Indians could make a run for an over-.500 finish. They'll battle with the White Sox for 3rd place as rookie manager Robin Ventura settles in on the South Side. The Royals... are the Royals.
So, about those AL East teams... the AL East used to be the best division in baseball, but the NL East has overtaken its Junior Circuit counterpart. Now you look at the top AL East teams and scratch your head a little. Will Bobby V and "no beer in the clubhouse" really make a difference in Boston? Will the Yankees figure out how to win with a starting rotation that presently has an ace (CC Sabathia), a possible ace-in-waiting (Ivan Nova), the disappointing Phil Hughes, and the aging Hiroki Kuroda and Freddy Garcia... soon to be joined by... Andy Pettitte? Really? Didn't he retire? Will the Rays continue to win, even as they play in front of empty seats night after night? Despite all the no-shows at the Trop, you have to figure Tampa Bay to have it together more than the other teams entering the 2012 season. Whether that will hold up over 162 games is a question in itself, but I'm going with the Rays to win the AL East. Boston and the Yankees will battle for a wild-card; both will not make it... I give the edge to the Red Sox, mostly because I've always liked Bobby V and he has plenty of players in their prime, as opposed to Joe Girardi's aging Bombers. I want so badly for Toronto to have a contender; it's the Canadian-by-osmosis in me, but it's just not going to happen until Jose Bautista and co. have a solid starting rotation to keep the opposition in check while they swing for the fences. The Baltimore Orioles... just lost to a community college team. For real.
Finally, the AL West... Texas is the 2-time defending AL champion, but failing to hold things down in Game 6 of the World Series last year may haunt them long into this season. If the Rangers stumble, Anaheim is right there to take the division with Pujols anchoring a lineup that also welcomes back Kendry Morales from his nearly 2-year absence following that bizarre home plate celebration injury. Either way, Texas is too good to miss the playoffs entirely. I'll take Texas to hang on and get the division, with the Angels taking the 2nd wild-card. Oakland and Seattle... are presently 1-1. And soon to be joined by the Astros at the bottom of the AL West.
Ah yes, the decision to put 15 teams in each league and have an interleague series going on every day of the season. That's about as stupid as... having 2 wild-card teams playing a one-game "play-in game" to decide who makes the NLDS...
This year, the optimism a lot of teams' fans have is justified because there is a greater possibility of their teams making the playoffs. Major League Baseball, in its infinite wisdom, added another wild-card team in both leagues, meaning that 10 out of 30 teams now make the playoffs. No, it's not 12 out of 30 like the NFL, or 16 out of 30 like the NHL and NBA, but it's still a lot, and like those other teams, it increases the possibility that the year's top teams (like last year's Phillies) will flame out in the early rounds and we won't have a super-team win it all as they deserve. It also increases the possibility that teams will make the playoffs when they don't necessarily deserve to. Particularly with a one-and-done playoff game that could potentially tip a 85-77 team into the NLDS over a 94-win team that barely missed winning its division.
How ironic that ESPN started the Opening Night broadcast by showing the moment-by-moment highlights of the last night of the 2011 regular season; that night was so exciting, so riveting... and under the new playoff system would have been so IRRELEVANT. Because the Red Sox, Rays, Braves, and Cardinals would have all been assured of playoff spots entering that final night if we were working with two wild cards last year. They would have only been playing for home field in the "play-in game." And therefore you see the problem with this new setup. By watering down the playoffs, you are actually ensuring that exciting nights like last September 28th DON'T happen. And worse yet, if we'd had the 2012 playoff setup in place last year, you would have the Braves and Red Sox backing into the playoffs... imploding yes, but not in historic fashion, especially if they had both rebounded to win the "play-in game" over the Cards and Rays, respectively. Two teams making the playoffs essentially by default and then having a chance to bounce the hotter, perhaps more deserving teams.
But this is Major League Baseball under Commandant Selig... they don't necessarily make moves with "the best interests of baseball" in mind anymore. Like that tie in the 2002 All-Star Game... or the "playing for World Series home field advantage" incentive added the next year. Don't get me wrong; I got used to the 3-division, wild-card format pretty quickly once it finally was implemented after the 1994-95 strike. However, that was put in place to reward really good teams that don't win a division. This new setup potentially "rewards" okay teams. Baseball is special because even when an 85-win Cardinals team wins it all (like in 2006), they got in the playoffs because they WON THEIR DIVISION. They didn't get in by winning 85 games, finishing 3rd, but squeezing into the 2nd wild-card spot.
So let's get on with the predictions of who will fill those 10 playoff spots, starting with the National League. All the added playoff spot means in the NL is that 3 teams from the NL East will make the postseason instead of 2. Yay, a 3rd-place team making the playoffs! Anyway, here in Philadelphia, fans are in full-on panic mode because they can feel the championship window closing on their team. Ryan Howard blew out his Achilles on the last swing of the season, Chase Utley's knees are declining quickly, and that leaves the middle of the order to such luminaries as Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix. Yes, you have the 3 aces (Halladay, Lee, and Hamels), and 4th-ace-in-training Vance Worley, but as the Cardinals proved last year, if it comes down to pitching and scratching out runs in the postseason, it's anyone's series (or play-in game if it comes to that).
Meanwhile, you have the now-Miami Marlins and their young core of talent helped by big-money acquisitions Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell, not to mention the hiring of big-mouth manager Ozzie Guillen. You also have the Atlanta Braves, looking to atone for their 2011 collapse, and still with the talent to be there at the end of the season. You also have the Washington Nationals... take a moment to let that sink in. THE NATIONALS ARE LEGIT CONTENDERS. And yeah, I've said this before about the Nats, but every time they realize they don't quite have enough pieces yet, they either draft them or sign them to big-money contracts. There's an awful lot riding on Stephen Strasburg's surgically-repaired shoulder, however, and with his mandated innings limit, the Nats could potentially face the all-important September stretch run (and playoffs if they make it) without their ace. I think the Phillies will somehow find a way to get that 6th straight division title, because they always come on in the 2nd half of seasons, and that's when they should be getting the big bats back. With the Marlins needing time to put it all together, that leaves them trying to keep up with the Phils down the stretch, and I just don't think it will happen, but it will leave Miami with a wild-card. Atlanta gets the 2nd NL wild-card, as Washington fades in September with Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson forced to pitch the big games and Strasburg maxed out on innings, unable to push them over the hump. Yay, a 3rd-place team in the playoffs...
On to the NL Central... first of all, let me say every time I see that MLB2012 PlayStation commercial with the Cubs finally winning it all, it makes me want the Cubs to win the World Series. And then the commercial ends and I realize the Cubs have no chance in hell this year. So who does have a chance? Milwaukee still does, despite the loss of Prince Fielder to free agency. The Cardinals still do, despite the loss of Albert Pujols to free agency. Cincinnati does; 2011 was a big letdown for this team that was supposedly on the rise, and I get the feeling 2012 will be make-or-break for the Reds as presently constituted. Hell, even Pittsburgh has a chance after they contended well into 2011, until an awful safe/out call at home plate in late July sent the Pirates spiraling to their usual sub-.500 finish. I'm tempted to put the 4 teams in a hat and pick one... but I will take the Reds to bounce back to 2010 form.
Over in the NL West, the Giants are a trendy pick to reassume their 2010 form as well, the form that won them a World Championship, mostly because Buster Posey is back for a full season. They certainly have the horses and the stretch-run experience, but all I can think of is how many runs they will give up because Bruce Bochy's overprotective "don't block the plate" stance on Posey. I can see 3rd base coaches giving the green light to many more runners against the Giants than any other team, knowing that if it's a close play at the plate, Posey will get out of the way. Arizona was very impressive in outlasting the Giants for the division last year, and they are definitely a postseason contender once again. The Dodgers have Magic... as in Magic Johnson, new part-owner of the franchise. With the McCourt debacle behind them, they can focus on baseball, but I just don't see them getting back to October this year. Colorado and San Diego are non-factors. Despite the extra runs scored on Posey, I take San Francisco over the D-Backs for the division.
Over to the American League... how's it feel to be a Detroit fan right now? I can't tell you the last time a team from Detroit other than the Red Wings entered a season with so much in the way of expectations. You have the team that got to the ALCS last year, with the best pitcher in baseball (yeah, you heard me Phillies fans, Verlander's better than Roy Halladay) and some capable arms backing him up, and the Tigers go out and get Prince Fielder to MORE than fill the gap created by Victor Martinez's ACL tear. Detroit is the runaway favorite to win the AL Central, and with big question marks on the usual AL East contenders, they may well be the favorite to win the AL. I don't know about October, but the Tigers will certainly take the Central. Minnesota will bounce back from its horrible 2011; Target Field will not prove to be as much of the Twins' undoing as Citi Field was for the Mets. Still, the Twins' best shot at October is to grab a wild-card. Cleveland needs Ubaldo Jimenez to return to his 2009-2010 Rockies numbers... after he sits out his suspension for drilling Troy Tulowitzki in HIS Rockies number. If he does, the Indians could make a run for an over-.500 finish. They'll battle with the White Sox for 3rd place as rookie manager Robin Ventura settles in on the South Side. The Royals... are the Royals.
So, about those AL East teams... the AL East used to be the best division in baseball, but the NL East has overtaken its Junior Circuit counterpart. Now you look at the top AL East teams and scratch your head a little. Will Bobby V and "no beer in the clubhouse" really make a difference in Boston? Will the Yankees figure out how to win with a starting rotation that presently has an ace (CC Sabathia), a possible ace-in-waiting (Ivan Nova), the disappointing Phil Hughes, and the aging Hiroki Kuroda and Freddy Garcia... soon to be joined by... Andy Pettitte? Really? Didn't he retire? Will the Rays continue to win, even as they play in front of empty seats night after night? Despite all the no-shows at the Trop, you have to figure Tampa Bay to have it together more than the other teams entering the 2012 season. Whether that will hold up over 162 games is a question in itself, but I'm going with the Rays to win the AL East. Boston and the Yankees will battle for a wild-card; both will not make it... I give the edge to the Red Sox, mostly because I've always liked Bobby V and he has plenty of players in their prime, as opposed to Joe Girardi's aging Bombers. I want so badly for Toronto to have a contender; it's the Canadian-by-osmosis in me, but it's just not going to happen until Jose Bautista and co. have a solid starting rotation to keep the opposition in check while they swing for the fences. The Baltimore Orioles... just lost to a community college team. For real.
Finally, the AL West... Texas is the 2-time defending AL champion, but failing to hold things down in Game 6 of the World Series last year may haunt them long into this season. If the Rangers stumble, Anaheim is right there to take the division with Pujols anchoring a lineup that also welcomes back Kendry Morales from his nearly 2-year absence following that bizarre home plate celebration injury. Either way, Texas is too good to miss the playoffs entirely. I'll take Texas to hang on and get the division, with the Angels taking the 2nd wild-card. Oakland and Seattle... are presently 1-1. And soon to be joined by the Astros at the bottom of the AL West.
Ah yes, the decision to put 15 teams in each league and have an interleague series going on every day of the season. That's about as stupid as... having 2 wild-card teams playing a one-game "play-in game" to decide who makes the NLDS...
Labels: baseball
posted by Dave | 9:19 PM
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