Welcome to the Doldrums
Congratulations, we've completed a cycle and we're back in the "doldrums". No, I'm not talking about the economic highs and lows of the last week, I'm talking about the world of popular music.
A while back, radio consultant Guy Zapoleon came up with a theory to explain cycles of popular music since the birth of rock 'n roll back in the 1950s. It goes like this: a new cycle begins with a "rebirth" of sorts, pop music embraces rock and R&B music, and Top 40 radio stations gain listenership. I would refer to this as the "good" part of any decade. Then, music hits a phase of "extremes", pop-rock bands become cliches, cheese-pop and dance music takes over and you have an onslaught of teen idols. I would refer to this as the "sucky" part of the decade. Eventually, as with anything extreme, it blows up and we are left with a "doldrums" period, characterized by "lite" and country artists being really popular and things that shouldn't be paired together on Pop radio getting massive airplay. I would refer to this as the "REALLY sucky" part of the decade.
The first cycle was 1956-63, taking us from the birth of rock through the Twist and the original teen idols to the doldrums right before the Beatles arrived. The second cycle goes from the "rebirth" of 1964 (British Invasion/Motown) through extremes of acid rock and the Partridge Family to the singer-songwriter trend that gave us James Taylor and Carole King but also gave us crap like Anne Murray and Gilbert O'Sullivan. Cycle 3 kicks in around 1974 with the rise of classic rock bands like the Eagles, Aerosmith, and Fleetwood Mac and Stevie Wonder's artistic peak (rebirth)... then we get disco and Shaun Cassidy (extremes)... and wind up with Air Supply and Kenny Rogers (doldrums). Cycle 4 gets launched by the rise of MTV around 1983-84: we get a rebirth around "Thriller", Madonna's debut, and the peak of new wave rock... followed by the original rap stars and New Kids on the Block (extremes)... followed by Bette Midler and Garth Brooks (doldrums). The grunge revolution launches Cycle 5 in 1992-93, helped by R&B megastars like Boyz II Men and TLC... this is followed by Eminem, rap metal, Britney, and the boy bands (extremes)... which leads to a doldrums of Michelle Branch, Creed, and Tim McGraw. Yeah, I follow this kind of thing, I'm a media scholar.
So Zapoleon has looked over the landscape of the last decade and figured out how Cycle 6 has played out. However, I take issue with Zapoleon's determination of what made up what part of the cycle this time around. Remember we left off around 2002-03 when everyone at karaoke night wanted to sing either Tim McGraw's "Live Like You Were Dying" or Kid Rock and Sheryl Crow, "Picture" (did you just feel the urge to throw up a little upon my mention of that last song? Trust me, you're not alone...) Well, Zapoleon puts the rebirth at 2006 and has a TON of different artists to thank. So let's go a piece at a time...
He says the rock bands that led the way were Green Day, Nickelback (regrettably), and emo bands like Fall Out Boy. Okay, yes, correct for the most part. However, he's off by a couple years. "American Idiot" hit in 2004, emo was in full gear by then with Good Charlotte and Blink 182, and FOB rode the wave launched by the others to stardom. Back up one Nickelback album and we can include them too. Therefore, the rebirth hits in 2004. Now that we've established that, let's look at the "pop" acts Zapoleon throws in: "American Idol" winners like Kelly Clarkson. Well, just stop there... "American Idol" was pretty much created to give us the next Britney or Justin Timberlake ('N Sync Justin, not post-'N Sync, and we'll get to him shortly), so I consider that a relic of Cycle 5, and let's face it, how many trendsetters came out of AI? Carrie Underwood... and we'll get to her later on as well. Tell you what, I'm willing to compromise: I will give Kelly Clarkson credit for the rebirth if we use her 2nd album where she goes rock as the reason. Speaking of Britney and Justin, they're mentioned here too, along with Beyonce and Rihanna. As I just mentioned, Britney's a relic of Cycle 5, so she's out... Justin Timberlake's first solo album DEFINITELY belongs as a R&B rebirth, and ditto Beyonce's solo debut. Since we've moved the rebirth back to 2004, it's too early for Rihanna.
Well, emo eventually got played out, Justin kinda stopped making albums, and by 2009, we've hit the extremes. We've got new hot rappers like Drake all over the radio, as well as Lady GaGa (an extreme in her own right), and the teen idols: Miley Cyrus and Justin Bieber. And crap. To me, nothing says "extremes" and just plain crap like Ke$ha. I've tried to listen to her music (I can't help it, the gym I go to plays the local pop station sometimes), and much as I find the beats and grooves inviting, SHE CAN'T SING!!! She's the type of singer that when you go to the local karaoke bar and someone picks one of her songs, there's a good chance that girl will do a better job with the song than the artist who recorded it.
So the decade has now flipped, and the doldrums are nigh. Count Taylor Swift and Carrie Underwood if you'd like as country stars who have already had pop hits, but they're only the beginning. Lady Antebellum has hit it big, and there are more to come. And as far as the lite stuff goes, we've already had Colbie Caillat hit it big, and I'm sure there are more of those artists coming soon.
That is, if you actually believe this cycles of pop music business. I buy into it to some extent (obviously, or else I wouldn't have spent a whole blog entry on it), but I feel like it's not as clear anymore. The audience has become so fragmented in the last decade. It was pretty predictable in past decades: early in a decade, the Next Big Thing comes along, bursts forth by mid-decade, implodes amongst a backlash of cheese pop and teen idols at the end of the decade, and then boom, we're in a "doldrums" period. But in the past, the teen idols and cheese pop went away. Now, things tend to stick around. Britney continues to put out hit albums as regularly as she goes off her rocker. Also, music fans listen to so many different things, and a lot of them nobody's ever heard of. Will they ever make pop radio? Well, if they do, they'll immediately be called sell-outs and it will be another excuse to trash radio (but that's another entry).
So here we are. We're in a new decade, emo has run its course, now what do we listen to? Well, I guess we need to start planning the next rebirth. What will start Cycle 7 a couple years down the road? The key now is to be different, stand out from all the sound-alike Godsmack-Breaking Benjamin-Shinedown crap on rock radio (much like emo did when it first came out), but at this point anything goes. A lot of what I like these days are the things that are different. The bands I cheer for (mostly local bands from my days in Syracuse) are ska bands like The Action, different-sounding groups like The Scarlet Ending, or familiar artists taking new directions like Julian Casablancas. If these sounds don't break through on sound-alike rock radio, that's why you have all these alternative media options now. You can get big on iTunes, Pandora, or YouTube, or do it by word of mouth.
That's why I feel like the whole cycle theory is falling apart, because pop radio is losing young listeners quickly to other media options. It's sad to say that radio is doing itself in by (for the most part) failing to embrace anything outside the comfort zone, but if you want to make it as a band, you gotta do what you gotta do, and if it's not through radio, then you have to do it some other way. In the meantime, enjoy the doldrums.
A while back, radio consultant Guy Zapoleon came up with a theory to explain cycles of popular music since the birth of rock 'n roll back in the 1950s. It goes like this: a new cycle begins with a "rebirth" of sorts, pop music embraces rock and R&B music, and Top 40 radio stations gain listenership. I would refer to this as the "good" part of any decade. Then, music hits a phase of "extremes", pop-rock bands become cliches, cheese-pop and dance music takes over and you have an onslaught of teen idols. I would refer to this as the "sucky" part of the decade. Eventually, as with anything extreme, it blows up and we are left with a "doldrums" period, characterized by "lite" and country artists being really popular and things that shouldn't be paired together on Pop radio getting massive airplay. I would refer to this as the "REALLY sucky" part of the decade.
The first cycle was 1956-63, taking us from the birth of rock through the Twist and the original teen idols to the doldrums right before the Beatles arrived. The second cycle goes from the "rebirth" of 1964 (British Invasion/Motown) through extremes of acid rock and the Partridge Family to the singer-songwriter trend that gave us James Taylor and Carole King but also gave us crap like Anne Murray and Gilbert O'Sullivan. Cycle 3 kicks in around 1974 with the rise of classic rock bands like the Eagles, Aerosmith, and Fleetwood Mac and Stevie Wonder's artistic peak (rebirth)... then we get disco and Shaun Cassidy (extremes)... and wind up with Air Supply and Kenny Rogers (doldrums). Cycle 4 gets launched by the rise of MTV around 1983-84: we get a rebirth around "Thriller", Madonna's debut, and the peak of new wave rock... followed by the original rap stars and New Kids on the Block (extremes)... followed by Bette Midler and Garth Brooks (doldrums). The grunge revolution launches Cycle 5 in 1992-93, helped by R&B megastars like Boyz II Men and TLC... this is followed by Eminem, rap metal, Britney, and the boy bands (extremes)... which leads to a doldrums of Michelle Branch, Creed, and Tim McGraw. Yeah, I follow this kind of thing, I'm a media scholar.
So Zapoleon has looked over the landscape of the last decade and figured out how Cycle 6 has played out. However, I take issue with Zapoleon's determination of what made up what part of the cycle this time around. Remember we left off around 2002-03 when everyone at karaoke night wanted to sing either Tim McGraw's "Live Like You Were Dying" or Kid Rock and Sheryl Crow, "Picture" (did you just feel the urge to throw up a little upon my mention of that last song? Trust me, you're not alone...) Well, Zapoleon puts the rebirth at 2006 and has a TON of different artists to thank. So let's go a piece at a time...
He says the rock bands that led the way were Green Day, Nickelback (regrettably), and emo bands like Fall Out Boy. Okay, yes, correct for the most part. However, he's off by a couple years. "American Idiot" hit in 2004, emo was in full gear by then with Good Charlotte and Blink 182, and FOB rode the wave launched by the others to stardom. Back up one Nickelback album and we can include them too. Therefore, the rebirth hits in 2004. Now that we've established that, let's look at the "pop" acts Zapoleon throws in: "American Idol" winners like Kelly Clarkson. Well, just stop there... "American Idol" was pretty much created to give us the next Britney or Justin Timberlake ('N Sync Justin, not post-'N Sync, and we'll get to him shortly), so I consider that a relic of Cycle 5, and let's face it, how many trendsetters came out of AI? Carrie Underwood... and we'll get to her later on as well. Tell you what, I'm willing to compromise: I will give Kelly Clarkson credit for the rebirth if we use her 2nd album where she goes rock as the reason. Speaking of Britney and Justin, they're mentioned here too, along with Beyonce and Rihanna. As I just mentioned, Britney's a relic of Cycle 5, so she's out... Justin Timberlake's first solo album DEFINITELY belongs as a R&B rebirth, and ditto Beyonce's solo debut. Since we've moved the rebirth back to 2004, it's too early for Rihanna.
Well, emo eventually got played out, Justin kinda stopped making albums, and by 2009, we've hit the extremes. We've got new hot rappers like Drake all over the radio, as well as Lady GaGa (an extreme in her own right), and the teen idols: Miley Cyrus and Justin Bieber. And crap. To me, nothing says "extremes" and just plain crap like Ke$ha. I've tried to listen to her music (I can't help it, the gym I go to plays the local pop station sometimes), and much as I find the beats and grooves inviting, SHE CAN'T SING!!! She's the type of singer that when you go to the local karaoke bar and someone picks one of her songs, there's a good chance that girl will do a better job with the song than the artist who recorded it.
So the decade has now flipped, and the doldrums are nigh. Count Taylor Swift and Carrie Underwood if you'd like as country stars who have already had pop hits, but they're only the beginning. Lady Antebellum has hit it big, and there are more to come. And as far as the lite stuff goes, we've already had Colbie Caillat hit it big, and I'm sure there are more of those artists coming soon.
That is, if you actually believe this cycles of pop music business. I buy into it to some extent (obviously, or else I wouldn't have spent a whole blog entry on it), but I feel like it's not as clear anymore. The audience has become so fragmented in the last decade. It was pretty predictable in past decades: early in a decade, the Next Big Thing comes along, bursts forth by mid-decade, implodes amongst a backlash of cheese pop and teen idols at the end of the decade, and then boom, we're in a "doldrums" period. But in the past, the teen idols and cheese pop went away. Now, things tend to stick around. Britney continues to put out hit albums as regularly as she goes off her rocker. Also, music fans listen to so many different things, and a lot of them nobody's ever heard of. Will they ever make pop radio? Well, if they do, they'll immediately be called sell-outs and it will be another excuse to trash radio (but that's another entry).
So here we are. We're in a new decade, emo has run its course, now what do we listen to? Well, I guess we need to start planning the next rebirth. What will start Cycle 7 a couple years down the road? The key now is to be different, stand out from all the sound-alike Godsmack-Breaking Benjamin-Shinedown crap on rock radio (much like emo did when it first came out), but at this point anything goes. A lot of what I like these days are the things that are different. The bands I cheer for (mostly local bands from my days in Syracuse) are ska bands like The Action, different-sounding groups like The Scarlet Ending, or familiar artists taking new directions like Julian Casablancas. If these sounds don't break through on sound-alike rock radio, that's why you have all these alternative media options now. You can get big on iTunes, Pandora, or YouTube, or do it by word of mouth.
That's why I feel like the whole cycle theory is falling apart, because pop radio is losing young listeners quickly to other media options. It's sad to say that radio is doing itself in by (for the most part) failing to embrace anything outside the comfort zone, but if you want to make it as a band, you gotta do what you gotta do, and if it's not through radio, then you have to do it some other way. In the meantime, enjoy the doldrums.
Labels: music
posted by Dave | 4:22 PM
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