I Pick the Pros 'Til They Scab and Bleed
OK, part 2 of the old yearly football picks thing. Time for the NFL (this year's motto: Pardon The Refs, We're Renegotiating...) and I don't know about you, but it seems like the interest in pro football as we approach the season is kinda lagging. I don't know if its because nobody outside of Baltimore wants to see the Ravens win another championship or if it's disappointment over the fact that Ryan Leaf is no longer in the league, but I for one am not really up for the season. Of course, the reason could actually be the fact that as a Jets fan, I have resigned myself to the fact that the optimism created by our 1998 run to the AFC title game when we were 30 minutes from the Super Bowl is over. It is now time to go back to accepting 8-8 every year.
Now, I have previously referenced my luck with football predictions; it's usually a 50-50 thing, which would be 50% in the ballpark and 50% not even close. So keep that in mind as we move along here...
Since my Jets are in the AFC East, let's start there. This is the Colts' division until anything drastic changes in the balance of power in the division and the league. They have Peyton Manning, they have Edgerrin James, and they have Marvin Harrison. Manning, James, and Harrison have never been hurt in their careers, and if that holds to form, Indy wins, hands down. Now as for second place, I have admitted that I was dead wrong on Miami last season. I said that not only was Damon Huard a better QB than Jay Fiedler, but that there was a chance they would contend for the top draft pick last season. Miami has a good team, a good defense, but not a great team. They will compete with the Jets for second place, the team that has a winning record might get it, but 9-7 won't get you in the playoffs in the AFC this year. Then there's Buffalo. The Bills are in deep trouble, and I stand by my prediction that Rob Johnson will be hurt in the first game and out for the season by Week 6. The Bills will be 6-10 at best and at worst could bring back memories of the Hank Bullough days of the mid-1980s. As bad as the Bills are, the Patriots are worse. The Terry Glenn fiasco was just the beginning, this is going to be a long sports year in Boston.
The AFC Central offers the top divisional dogfight in the NFL, the defending champs and the Tennessee Titans. Baltimore proved that defense wins championships, but the fact is NOBODY WANTS TO WATCH DEFENSE WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS, and ditching Dilfer is really going to hurt in the long run. Tennessee has a good quarterback in Steve McNair and a healthy running back in Eddie George (the Ravens' top runner is out for the season), and of course their D rivals that of Baltimore for tops in the league. In a deep division such as the AFC Central, three teams will easily make the playoffs, and so there will be a good battle between the Jaguars and Steelers for that spot. It all depends on whether or not Kordell Stewart finally returns to form and Mark Brunell can stay healthy. Cleveland and Cincinnati as usual bring up the rear, as the state of Ohio wonders if by combining the two, they might be able to squeeze out a 7-9 season.
In the AFC West, Denver is back, and if they can keep all their running backs happy, they'll have a good year and take the division. Even better, perhaps, if one of them is unhappy with his playing time, the Broncos could deal him to shore up another position and improve their depth, something that always comes into play come January. Now I know Oakland made it to the AFC title game last year, and I know I've been burned in the past by picking against a team merely because I don't like them, but Oakland can't have two good years in a row, they are the Raiders, after all. So, they fight with Seattle and the pack in the AFC Central for the last wild-card spot. The Seahawks may have found an answer in Matt Hasselbeck at QB, and may I note that the mere fact that Jon Kitna is a Bengal now proves that I was right all along by saying Kitna was not a Super Bowl-caliber signal-caller. Meanwhile, KC and San Diego are just taking up space, but the Chargers will be better with Flutie directing the offense.
Over to the NFC... I would be more likely to call the Giants one-year wonders than the Ravens; there are way too many variables that are too likely to come undone with New York than with Baltimore. Too many things fell into place last year for New York that are unlikely to happen again. That said, they still are good enough to at least share the NFC East title with Philadelphia, as the Eagles will have a year of growing pains ahead. I dare say they may be a good pick for the Super Bowl in 2002, but first it would be nice if they got their turf fixed. Elsewhere... once upon a time I hated Dallas, it was Jerry Jones, the fact that they beat Buffalo in the Super Bowl twice, the fact that they were as smug as the Yankees are now. Well now, they've hit bottom, and I like them again, because I like underdogs, I like upstarts, and this is one. Quincy Carter is a good-looking prospect and he can get the Cowboys to .500, which is better than a lot of people are saying. Washington, meanwhile, has no prayer of making the playoffs. The likely scenario in D.C. will be a replay of last season, only Tony Banks replaces Brad Johnson and Marty Schottenheimer of course takes the role of Norv Turner: Banks displaces Jeff George as starter, Marty likes Banks, Daniel Snyder likes George (still), Snyder forces Marty to play George, George stinks, Redskins miss playoffs, Marty gets fired. Arizona is awful; how sad to see that they have fallen so far from the team they were just a couple years ago when they beat Dallas in the playoffs.
Minnesota remains the team to beat in the NFC Central for at least one more year; maybe after Cris Carter is retired, they may slip. They put points on the board, they play on the plastic stuff, and the tragic death of Korey Stringer will serve only as extra motivation to do well. Now I can hear the Tampa Bay fans now wondering why I haven't anointed them as the new kings of the "Norris Division"; after all, they did sign Brad Johnson to be their quarterback. Here's the problem, BucFan, you threw money at a big name free agent when you HAD NO QUARTERBACK PROBLEM. Shaun King is a damn good quarterback and a very effective leader. It's going to take a 4-4 start for Tony Dungy to realize that, and then you may very well have a Doug Flutie-Rob Johnson situation on your hands. Detroit is still spinning its wheels, they probably still hold out hope that Barry Sanders will come back. Chicago is beyond pathetic; Cade McNown was apparently a failure and there isn't much left to salvage. They'll get the top pick next April, but Dick Jauron likely won't be there to help make the selection.
The NFC West may not be the worst division in football anymore, the AFC East and NFC East are strong contenders. Still, it's a one-horse race as the Rams will have everyone healthy and a better D, and despite the continued improvement of Aaron Brooks, the Saints still have a way to go to catch them. The 49ers are on the way back, and Jeff Garcia and Garrison Hearst could become one of the best QB-RB tandems in the league this year. The Falcons and Panthers will continue to struggle, expect a baptism by fire for both Michael Vick and Chris Weinke.
So here's the rundown:
AFC East AFC Central AFC West
Indianapolis* 13-3 Tennessee* 13-3 Denver* 11-5
Miami 9-7 Baltimore* 12-4 Oakland* 10-6
NY Jets 8-8 Pittsburgh* 10-6 Seattle 9-7
Buffalo 6-10 Jacksonville 9-7 Kansas City 5-11
New England 4-12 Cleveland 4-12 San Diego 4-12
Cincinnati 3-13
NFC East NFC Central NFC West
NY Giants* 10-6 Minnesota* 12-4 St. Louis* 12-4
Philadelphia* 10-6 Green Bay* 10-6 New Orleans 9-7
Dallas 8-8 Tampa Bay* 9-7 San Francisco 8-8
Washington 7-9 Detroit 6-10 Atlanta 6-10
Arizona 4-12 Chicago 2-14 Carolina 5-11
(*- playoff teams)
AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis vs. Denver
NFC Championship Game: Minnesota vs. St. Louis
Super Bowl Whatever-the-Heck It Is (37?): Indianapolis vs. St. Louis
Now, I have previously referenced my luck with football predictions; it's usually a 50-50 thing, which would be 50% in the ballpark and 50% not even close. So keep that in mind as we move along here...
Since my Jets are in the AFC East, let's start there. This is the Colts' division until anything drastic changes in the balance of power in the division and the league. They have Peyton Manning, they have Edgerrin James, and they have Marvin Harrison. Manning, James, and Harrison have never been hurt in their careers, and if that holds to form, Indy wins, hands down. Now as for second place, I have admitted that I was dead wrong on Miami last season. I said that not only was Damon Huard a better QB than Jay Fiedler, but that there was a chance they would contend for the top draft pick last season. Miami has a good team, a good defense, but not a great team. They will compete with the Jets for second place, the team that has a winning record might get it, but 9-7 won't get you in the playoffs in the AFC this year. Then there's Buffalo. The Bills are in deep trouble, and I stand by my prediction that Rob Johnson will be hurt in the first game and out for the season by Week 6. The Bills will be 6-10 at best and at worst could bring back memories of the Hank Bullough days of the mid-1980s. As bad as the Bills are, the Patriots are worse. The Terry Glenn fiasco was just the beginning, this is going to be a long sports year in Boston.
The AFC Central offers the top divisional dogfight in the NFL, the defending champs and the Tennessee Titans. Baltimore proved that defense wins championships, but the fact is NOBODY WANTS TO WATCH DEFENSE WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS, and ditching Dilfer is really going to hurt in the long run. Tennessee has a good quarterback in Steve McNair and a healthy running back in Eddie George (the Ravens' top runner is out for the season), and of course their D rivals that of Baltimore for tops in the league. In a deep division such as the AFC Central, three teams will easily make the playoffs, and so there will be a good battle between the Jaguars and Steelers for that spot. It all depends on whether or not Kordell Stewart finally returns to form and Mark Brunell can stay healthy. Cleveland and Cincinnati as usual bring up the rear, as the state of Ohio wonders if by combining the two, they might be able to squeeze out a 7-9 season.
In the AFC West, Denver is back, and if they can keep all their running backs happy, they'll have a good year and take the division. Even better, perhaps, if one of them is unhappy with his playing time, the Broncos could deal him to shore up another position and improve their depth, something that always comes into play come January. Now I know Oakland made it to the AFC title game last year, and I know I've been burned in the past by picking against a team merely because I don't like them, but Oakland can't have two good years in a row, they are the Raiders, after all. So, they fight with Seattle and the pack in the AFC Central for the last wild-card spot. The Seahawks may have found an answer in Matt Hasselbeck at QB, and may I note that the mere fact that Jon Kitna is a Bengal now proves that I was right all along by saying Kitna was not a Super Bowl-caliber signal-caller. Meanwhile, KC and San Diego are just taking up space, but the Chargers will be better with Flutie directing the offense.
Over to the NFC... I would be more likely to call the Giants one-year wonders than the Ravens; there are way too many variables that are too likely to come undone with New York than with Baltimore. Too many things fell into place last year for New York that are unlikely to happen again. That said, they still are good enough to at least share the NFC East title with Philadelphia, as the Eagles will have a year of growing pains ahead. I dare say they may be a good pick for the Super Bowl in 2002, but first it would be nice if they got their turf fixed. Elsewhere... once upon a time I hated Dallas, it was Jerry Jones, the fact that they beat Buffalo in the Super Bowl twice, the fact that they were as smug as the Yankees are now. Well now, they've hit bottom, and I like them again, because I like underdogs, I like upstarts, and this is one. Quincy Carter is a good-looking prospect and he can get the Cowboys to .500, which is better than a lot of people are saying. Washington, meanwhile, has no prayer of making the playoffs. The likely scenario in D.C. will be a replay of last season, only Tony Banks replaces Brad Johnson and Marty Schottenheimer of course takes the role of Norv Turner: Banks displaces Jeff George as starter, Marty likes Banks, Daniel Snyder likes George (still), Snyder forces Marty to play George, George stinks, Redskins miss playoffs, Marty gets fired. Arizona is awful; how sad to see that they have fallen so far from the team they were just a couple years ago when they beat Dallas in the playoffs.
Minnesota remains the team to beat in the NFC Central for at least one more year; maybe after Cris Carter is retired, they may slip. They put points on the board, they play on the plastic stuff, and the tragic death of Korey Stringer will serve only as extra motivation to do well. Now I can hear the Tampa Bay fans now wondering why I haven't anointed them as the new kings of the "Norris Division"; after all, they did sign Brad Johnson to be their quarterback. Here's the problem, BucFan, you threw money at a big name free agent when you HAD NO QUARTERBACK PROBLEM. Shaun King is a damn good quarterback and a very effective leader. It's going to take a 4-4 start for Tony Dungy to realize that, and then you may very well have a Doug Flutie-Rob Johnson situation on your hands. Detroit is still spinning its wheels, they probably still hold out hope that Barry Sanders will come back. Chicago is beyond pathetic; Cade McNown was apparently a failure and there isn't much left to salvage. They'll get the top pick next April, but Dick Jauron likely won't be there to help make the selection.
The NFC West may not be the worst division in football anymore, the AFC East and NFC East are strong contenders. Still, it's a one-horse race as the Rams will have everyone healthy and a better D, and despite the continued improvement of Aaron Brooks, the Saints still have a way to go to catch them. The 49ers are on the way back, and Jeff Garcia and Garrison Hearst could become one of the best QB-RB tandems in the league this year. The Falcons and Panthers will continue to struggle, expect a baptism by fire for both Michael Vick and Chris Weinke.
So here's the rundown:
AFC East AFC Central AFC West
Indianapolis* 13-3 Tennessee* 13-3 Denver* 11-5
Miami 9-7 Baltimore* 12-4 Oakland* 10-6
NY Jets 8-8 Pittsburgh* 10-6 Seattle 9-7
Buffalo 6-10 Jacksonville 9-7 Kansas City 5-11
New England 4-12 Cleveland 4-12 San Diego 4-12
Cincinnati 3-13
NFC East NFC Central NFC West
NY Giants* 10-6 Minnesota* 12-4 St. Louis* 12-4
Philadelphia* 10-6 Green Bay* 10-6 New Orleans 9-7
Dallas 8-8 Tampa Bay* 9-7 San Francisco 8-8
Washington 7-9 Detroit 6-10 Atlanta 6-10
Arizona 4-12 Chicago 2-14 Carolina 5-11
(*- playoff teams)
AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis vs. Denver
NFC Championship Game: Minnesota vs. St. Louis
Super Bowl Whatever-the-Heck It Is (37?): Indianapolis vs. St. Louis
Labels: football
posted by Dave | 11:07 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home