Football Picks With Bad TV Cliches, Part 1

Now, I'm no analyst. If anything, I need analysis, but enough about my psychological situation. The time has come for me to predict and prognosticate (which means the same thing, but sounds like something Dennis Miller might say) the upcoming football season. We all care about the NFL, so I'll offer up my predictions on that right now. As for me alone, I care about Syracuse, Susquehanna, and West Genesee, so later in the month, I'll try to look into my non-existent crystal ball and pull a decent prediction out of my ahhh, I mean the air, that's right.

OK, pros first, and I'll start in the AFC East, as that has my favorite team, the New York Jets. The rookies have impressed in training camp, Vinnie looks OK, but there's no Keyshawn and Al Groh (which sounds more like the guy TV's "Rhoda" married) is now the coach. There is no division title in the future for these guys, not with the Colts in their division. A wild card could certainly happen, though. Indianapolis is the clear favorite in the AFC East. If anything, they're better than they were last year, they're a year older, they're deeper, especially at running back. They get the division and likely home field throughout the playoffs. After that, it's a dogfight for the wildcard berth (singular, there can be only one) between the Bills and Jets. First one to 10 wins gets it, otherwise the head-to-head matchups may decide things. Rob Johnson is the man in Buffalo mostly by default (no Flutie due to his groin injury), and the young receiving corps has to jell quick in order to get the offense anywhere. Defensively, Marcellus Wiley is the key; if he's healthy, he can be a good replacement for Bruce Smith. The secondary needs help and will probably be exploited often. New England will need a year or two to get it together under Bill Belichick, here's hoping he is given that long. Miami brings up the rear. Damon Huard did win more games than Dan Marino as starter last year, but the offense isn't too good, and if Huard goes down, the Dolphins may challenge for next year's top draft pick.

In the AFC Central, three teams battle for the division crown, and all three should make the postseason. Jacksonville's paper-thin offensive line could make it a long season if it can't keep Mark Brunell from getting hurt. However, there always seems to be a backup QB who can get it done when he is called on (in the past, Rob Johnson and Jay Fiedler have done this). The Titans are just plain solid, they don't have many weaknesses, and the defense is even better with the addition of Keith Bulluck (a Syracuse grad, I might add). Baltimore is the trendy pick with the addition of Shannon Sharpe and a rock-solid defense. The offense is the X-factor, and all the pressure falls on the quarterback. Tony Banks and Scott Mitchell don't exactly scare anyone. I'm going with Tennessee first, the Jags second, and the Ravens third. As for the rest of the decision, Plaxico Burress helps Kordell Stewart out a little in Pittsburgh, but first Stewart has to learn to throw to Burress and not the guy covering him. Cleveland has a year under its belt, and has no place to go but up. The Bengals, on the other hand, aren't going anywhere, not with Darnay Scott on IR, Corey Dillon in exile, and Carl Pickens in Nashville. At least they have a new stadium.

The AFC West is wide-open, with no clear-cut favorite. I only have one team making the postseason, as I figure that all five teams will spend the season beating each other up. I am picking Seattle. Why? Well, for background, I've liked the Seahawks since the Dennis Erickson-Joey Galloway days, and they always underachieve. Not this year, not with a year under Mike Holmgren behind them. The guy doesn't like to sit at home in January, and it won't happen this year. Maybe the friendly outdoor confines of Husky Stadium will help as well. If they falter, Oakland can steal the division. The Raiders did well under Jon Gruden in season one, and Sebastian Janikowski gives them a chance to win games they wouldn't have won in the past. Now all Sebastian has to do is stay out of the police blotter. Denver will bounce back from its bad '99, but not enough to make it to the playoffs. Kansas City and San DIego can't do better than mediocre this year, but in this division, that might just prove lucky for them.

Switching to the NFC, the division winners are a little easier to predict, especially in the East. If you aren't picking Washington to win the NFC East, you are nuts. The defense is too good to finish 30th again, not with Ray Rhodes running things, Bruce Smith and Deion Sanders providing veteran leadership, and the occasional LaVar Leap from rookie linebacker Arrington. Brad Johnson and Jeff George are the best 1-2 QB combo in the NFL, although how Daniel Snyder managed to fit both under the cap probably required more paperwork and loopholes than your last tax return. The race is for second, as it may determine a wild-card berth, as Arizona, New York, and Philadelphia will all fall around the .500 mark. Arizona needs to stay healthy, especially Jake Plummer, and the same goes for the Giants. Ron Dayne probably won't be the breakout star people think he'll be, but he should take the heat off Kerry Collins. In Philly, Donovan McNabb is polished and ready to do to the NFC East what he did to the Big East in college. The defense needs to stay injury-free and the offensive line has to do a better job protecting McNabb than it did last year. Dallas is on the way down, but still expect Troy Aikman and Joey Galloway to run up some impressive numbers.

As usual, the NFC Central is the Black and Blue Division, as all 5 teams have a shot at the playoffs. Now, I know everyone is penciling in Tampa Bay as the runaway favorite, but I'm still on the fence. I look at Shaun King and the Bucs offense, and all I see is that 45-0 pasting Oakland gave them last December. They'll have to be more consistent to contend for the Super Bowl; Keyshawn Johnson does help greatly, but the running game is suspect. The challengers are Green Bay and Chicago. The Pack has renewed focus under Mike Sherman, but Favre and Levens are banged up. All they need to do to make it to January, though, is win 9 games, and that's certainly do-able. The Bears are a shaky third; Curtis Enis and Cade McNown haven't exactly set the world on fire since entering the NFL, expecting them to do just that may be too much to ask. Sorry Minnesota, Daunte Culpepper is not worth giving up Randall Cunningham and Jeff George over. And as for Detroit, Charlie Batch needs to stay healthy (how many times am I going to have to use the phrase "needs to stay healthy"?) and James Stewart has to prove he's worth every dollar William Clay Ford is giving him for the Lions to make the playoffs.

For years, I have called the NFC West the worst division in football, and this year it holds true to form. The Rams will have the thing clinched in November again, and the Falcons and Panthers can only hope to finish at .500. Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, the great receivers; there should be a lot of bobbing-and-weaving going on this year, or actually there would be had the NFL not banned such celebrations (don't get me started on that, it'll probably be the subject of a future "This Just In"). Atlanta will have Jamal Anderson back, but Chris Chandler and the defense isn't getting any younger, and the same goes for Steve Beuerlein and the Carolina D. The 49ers and Saints will likely battle with the Bengals for the right to have their name next to "are now on the clock..." next April.