NFL 2012: I'm a Substitute for Another Ref

Sometimes I just like to put a Who reference in my titles... but really, the number one story of the NFL season as it begins today is those replacement refs. Will they screw up royally and change the outcome of a game/season? Or will they miss just as many calls as the regular refs do? Let's face it, the regular refs didn't always get it right either, and pro football does have the benefit of replay. That being said, I'm sure people will find The Replacement Refs to be even worse than the movie "The Replacements," where Keanu Reeves leads a ragtag bunch of scab football players to victory. I'm not sure if that will be the case, but it does give me a chance to say that the band The Replacements was pretty damn good back in the 1980s. There ya go, a football preview AND a Paul Westerberg reference...

Anyway, let's do this quick and dirty, as the season did kick off for the most part today, and therefore these picks already have a limited shelf life. Starting in the AFC East with my New York Jets... how about that 180 degree turn of events this afternoon? Apparently, Rex Ryan didn't just keep the Wildcat plays in his playbook; he kept THE ENTIRE OFFENSE in there. After scoring zero touchdowns with the first-string offense in the preseason, the Jets hung 48 on the supposedly stingy defense of Buffalo this afternoon. They scored in every possible way... Mark Sanchez throwing touchdown passes, Jeremy Kerley returning a punt for a touchdown, even a pick-6 for the Gang Green defense. Nick Folk even managed to kick two field goals successfully. Now obviously, this is a very small sample, but it's much more encouraging than what we saw in the games that don't count. Had I made my Jets pick before today, I probably would have said 8-8 and even that would have been wishful thinking. Instead, I think they're a playoff team again. Not good enough to beat the Patriots for the division title, but definitely a wild-card.

I hate the New England Patriots. I really do. But as long as Bill Belichick keeps coaching and Tom Brady keeps playing quarterback, and the front office keeps drafting players like SU alum Chandler Jones, there is no reason to believe they will relinquish their stranglehold on the AFC East. Buffalo had been considered a trendy wild-card pick by a few prognosticators. I think they're eating their words tonight with some extra Frank's Red Hot on them. CJ Spiller impressed with his 2nd half output, but they didn't get far without Fred Jackson last year, and if he's out for any extended period of time after his first-half leg injury, they won't get far without him in 2012. Or without the defense they were supposed to have, for that matter. Then there's Miami... um... well... at least you still have the Heat.

The AFC Central has been a tug-of-war between the Ravens and Steelers for the last few years. This year, there's a clear favorite. Baltimore will win the division. The Steelers are taking a step back, and will have to contend with the Bengals for a wild-card, and even then, neither team may get in. Sure, Andy Dalton impressed as a rookie last year in leading Cincinnati back to the postseason, but what can he do for an encore? In this age where kids go straight from first-round pick to wowing on Day One (see: Robert Griffin III), it's still important to maintain that success once you get there. I don't think the Bengals can do that. Cleveland may be playing for the first pick in next year's draft. Based on their recent draft strategy (and Brandon Weeden's first-game performance... you cannot tell me that he's better than Colt McCoy), they'll probably take yet another quarterback.

It was impressive enough that Houston won the AFC South and made their first-ever playoff appearance last season; that they cleared the last couple of hurdles with their third-string QB was even more impressive. Matt Schaub is back behind the controls, and the Texans have no real competition in their division. Sorry Tennessee, you're not that good. The Colts have their new franchise QB in Andrew Luck, but there was a lot of talent that needed to be replaced in Indy after last year's 2-14 debacle. It took 2 years for the Colts to jell around Peyton Manning to the point where he became the cornerstone of the franchise for a decade. It will take Luck at least that long. They'll be better than Jacksonville, though. The mere fact that the Jags recycled Mike Mularkey and gave him another head coaching job ensures that the Colts will finish higher. Meanwhile, people in Los Angeles continue to scratch their heads, and ask, "How is it that Jacksonville still has a team, and we don't?"

Speaking of Manning, he's now in Denver, and if he truly is back to normal, that would lock up the AFC West for the Broncos, right? Well, not so fast. I'm not sold on Manning as being 100 percent, not until I see half a season out of him, and with my doubts firmly in place, I'm going elsewhere to pick a division champion. The Chargers had a down year in 2011, but somehow Norv Turner kept his job. This isn't gonna be the case if they continue to struggle this year. Turner may soon be Chris Berman's new "Rasputin" coach, the title he once hung on former Detroit head coach Wayne Fontes, who always seemed to be one more loss away from getting whacked. San Diego wins the West. Denver contends for a wild-card. If Manning lives up to his past successes, they're in. If not, they settle around .500 where you'll also find the middling Kansas City Chiefs. The Oakland Raiders will plunge back to the AFC West cellar because... well, they're the Raiders. All of that optimism from last year will evaporate as soon as Raider Nation realizes that Darren McFadden can't play 16 games, Carson Palmer is past his prime, and you don't whack a head coach when you're on the verge of getting back to the playoffs.

Turning now to the NFC East... this is where I ask (like I seem to do every year) what the hell NFL experts are smoking, thinking the Dallas Cowboys will return to prominence this year. Yeah, Tony Romo may get an unfair share of the blame for the Cowboys' missteps in the past few years (well, except for their postseason failures, which are ALL on him), but it sure seems like there have been a lot of wastes of good efforts in Big D recently. He puts up numbers, but not W's. The defense is good, but doesn't win games. There just seems to be something hanging over the franchise, like some force that prevents good mojo from associating itself with "America's Team." Oh that's right, I figured out what it is... Jerry Jones. Anyway, the division is up for grabs between the defending World Champion Giants, and the Philadelphia Eagles, who will have to do way better than they did today to A) make the playoffs, and B) stop the fans from calling for Andy Reid's head on a weekly basis. Oh Eagles fans, you're nothing if not mind-numbingly consistent. "Yay, we're 1-0... but fire him anyway!" Oh yeah, how about that RG3? Washington's new savior hung 40 on the Saints today; apparently, he wasn't done putting video-game numbers up on the scoreboard when he left Baylor. Griffin will make for entertaining football, which Redskins fans desperately want to see, but it will only be good enough to put them ahead of just the Cowboys in the East.

I called it last year when I thought Detroit would become a playoff team. At the time, however, I thought they were building toward something greater. That went out the window when half the roster landed on the police blotter during the offseason. Despite the appearance of having less talent than a year ago (particularly with Jahvid Best injured yet again), the young Lions have learned how to win, and put that together with Matthew Stafford and Megatron, and they have a chance at sneaking back into the postseason this year. The Packers started the 2012 season with a spectacular thud against the Niners, but they're too good to stay down for too long. Chicago will be right there in the mix as well. The Vikings are getting a new stadium soon; now the question is can they build the team up to be a contender by the time it opens?

I expected better of Cam Newton today... because he's my fantasy quarterback, and because, well, he was another one of these awesome rookie QBs from last season. But give new Bucs head coach Greg Schiano credit for taking care of business and holding the Carolina offense largely in check. Tampa Bay pulled off a huge opening week win, and it kinda makes the NFC South a little more wide-open than we may have thought. Now Atlanta is the team to beat, but they always seem shaky, like they're capable of pulling off a stinker like they did in the playoffs last January at any time. New Orleans may not have to worry about losing their players to suspension after "bounty-gate," but you just have to wonder about the psychological toll on the franchise of losing their head coach for a year, the now-overturned suspensions, and the tense contract negotiations with Drew Brees right before training camp. So Carolina may have had an opening with Newton's continued improvement, but as we saw today, you can't just assume it will continue unabated.

Finally, in the NFC West, San Francisco took a giant leap forward today in convincing people that Jim Harbaugh's first season as head coach was no fluke. This is a team that is just rounding into form, with plenty of upside. In fact, they could be heading to the Super Bowl this February. It helps that they again will have no real competition in their division. Even with the Niners' success, I still consider the NFC West to be the Worst Division in Football. Seattle got a lot of hype as a possible challenger with Russell Wilson at quarterback, but they tripped over themselves and lost to the lowly Cardinals today. The Rams aren't a bottom-feeder, but they're not world-beaters, either. Arizona is still trying to figure out how to recapture the magic of their Super Bowl run from four years ago. So like I said, no real competition.

Here's how the records will shake out in 2012 (playoff teams marked with *)...

AFC East: New England 12-4*, NY Jets 10-6*, Buffalo 6-10, Miami 4-12
AFC North: Baltimore 12-4*, Pittsburgh 9-7, Cincinnati 8-8, Cleveland 1-15
AFC South: Houston 11-5*, Tennessee 8-8, Indianapolis 5-11, Jacksonville 3-13
AFC West: San Diego 10-6*, Denver 9-7*, Kansas City 8-8, Oakland 5-11

NFC East: Philadelphia 10-6*, NY Giants 10-6*, Washington 7-9, Dallas 6-10
NFC North: Chicago 12-5*, Green Bay 12-5*, Detroit 10-6, Minnesota 4-12
NFC South: Atlanta 10-6*, New Orleans 9-7, Carolina 7-9, Tampa Bay 6-10
NFC West: San Francisco 13-3*, Seattle 8-8, Arizona 6-10, St. Louis 5-11