Lockout? What Lockout? There Was a Lockout?
Well, here we are... rolling into Week 1 of the NFL season, the game of pro football having been unsullied by the offseason labor difficulties, fans all set to pack the stadiums and the couches to watch their favorite teams. In other words, the owners won.
Why do I make such a statement? Simple. As I've said here before, the lockout was about one thing, specifically one person: DeMaurice Smith. He was out to make a name for himself in sports labor circles, and how do you generally do that? By causing a major work stoppage. Think about it... why do we know Donald Fehr and Billy Hunter? Why do we take them seriously? Because Fehr wiped out the 1994 World Series, and Hunter wiped out half a 1998-99 NBA season. Yes, the late Gene Upshaw presided over a long period of labor peace in the NFL, but that was preceded by a strike in 1987 that wiped out one week of games and led to replacement players for several more, not to mention years of anti-trust lawsuits. Therefore, when DeMaurice Smith took over the NFLPA, he had one goal: cause a major work stoppage and make a name for himself. Smith immediately began proclaiming that there would be a major work stoppage when the collective bargaining agreement expired. Last season, he told players to save their game checks so they could get through a cancelled 2011 season. He played his major move on day 1, decertifying the union and taking the NFL into a protracted court case that would likely swallow the entire season whole.
Except it didn't. The NFL dodged and parried through the early court actions, sat down with the players and worked out a deal that everyone liked, and despite Smith's initial rhetoric that there would be no deal and later hints that the players might shoot it down, peace was established. The total carnage: One preseason game. Nothing that upset any casual NFL fan's apple cart; the preseason went on as scheduled, drafts were held on time, rosters were trimmed this week, the show goes on. Smith wanted to make a name for himself... instead, rookie QB Terrelle Pryor didn't even heed his advice to appeal the 5-game suspension dropped on him by the NFL for his Ohio State shenanigans. Smith's one goal, to make a name for himself by being linked to a major work stoppage failed. When his name gets brought up over some players union snafu weeks or months from now, most NFL fans will say, "Who?" Therefore, the owners won. Play ball...
So how does this season shape up? Well, Rex Ryan again is proclaiming the Jets to be a Super Bowl team, and after 2 straight AFC Championship Game appearances, they are certainly contenders. However, they know they need to finish ahead of the Patriots to get home field advantage in the playoffs. Being road warriors the last 2 years could only take them so far, and despite winning 2 of 3 over the Pats last year (including the playoffs), conventional wisdom still says the Patriots are the better team, by virtue of those past Super Bowl rings and more recent division championships. The Jets lost Jason Taylor and Shaun Ellis on defense, and replaced one #17 with off-the-field issues (Braylon Edwards) with a #17 who just got out of jail (Plaxico Burress). Meanwhile, New England brings in Chad Ochocinco (and Ellis) and keeps all those role players who frustrated opposing teams all year long en route to a 14-2 record in 2010.
Who wins the AFC East and gets that home-field advantage? Well, I AM a Jets fan... after knocking on the door last year, they kick it in this season. Tom Brady is getting on in years and opposing defenses are realizing that if you rattle him by knocking him down a few times, he's not as sharp. The Detroit Lions made him look awful in a recent preseason game; other D-lines should follow their (and the Jets) lead. Miami seems to be in a constant state of rebuilding, always a couple players shy of putting it all together, so the best they can do is 8-8. Buffalo... well, they still have a team. That's good, right?
The AFC South has been thrown into a state of flux by Peyton Manning's neck issues. At this point, you have to figure the Colts will be starting someone else at QB for the first time since 1997, at least for the first couple weeks, and that may not look pretty. The door is open for another team to grab the early lead and ride it to a division title. If they can put it all together this season, that team is the Houston Texans. They disappointed last year, so the pressure is on Matt Schaub, Aryan Foster, Andre Johnson, and company to win the games they lost at the wire in 2010. If Houston turns the corner, they win the AFC South, with the Colts repeating last year's early struggles before contending for the wild-card. Matt Hasselbeck is not the answer in Tennessee; expect Jake Locker to start sooner than later. Jacksonville... well, they still have a team... although maybe not for much longer.
The AFC North always seems to come down to the Ravens and Steelers, and this season will be no exception. Baltimore nearly stopped Pittsburgh's Super Bowl run in the playoffs last year, but the Steelers prevailed en route to the AFC title, and this year they have Big Ben for the full season (barring injury, of course). The North is Pittsburgh's to lose, and if by some chance they do, the Ravens will step right in; otherwise, it's another wild-card for them. Cleveland is starting to make real progress with Colt McCoy and last year's pleasant surprise Peyton Hillis, but they still have a way to go. The Bengals are not going anywhere, which will send Marvin Lewis to the unemployment line at year's end.
It's hard to get a fix on the AFC West. San Diego should be the best team in that division, but they underachieved last year, starting 2-5 and not regrouping fully in time to make the playoffs. Does Ryan Mathews' maturation keep the offense on top of the league rankings and will that get the Chargers back to the postseason? It should. Kansas City won the AFC West last year, but you also had to wonder about them from week to week. They will certainly contend, but this time they fall short. Denver is a mess; the Broncos almost traded Kyle Orton so they could put God's Gift to Football (Tim Tebow) in the starting job that he was apparently anointed for. Then, they realized Tebow's not a good QB. However, the supporting cast isn't all that spectacular, either. Oakland... yeah, I'm not gonna say anything bad about the Raiders... because one of their fans might shoot me.
The NFC East is the Eagles' to lose. That's what happens when you acquire big names like Ronnie Brown, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Nnamdi Asomugha, sign Michael Vick to a $100 million deal and label yourselves a "dream team." This makes 2 teams in Philadelphia whose season will be judged as championship-or-bust. Fortunately for the Eagles, they don't have serious competition in their division. The Giants didn't get anyone of note in the offseason, have to deal with a whiny Osi Umenyiora, and a grumbling fan base. Their ceiling is 9-7, and it may cost Tom Coughlin his job. Dallas with Tony Romo is... Dallas with Tony Romo. They always look good on paper, but they never live up to the hype. Meanwhile, Mike Shanahan's Redskins are pretty much in the same vicious cycle of rebuilding that his former team in Denver is in.
The defending Super Bowl champs from Green Bay should cruise to the NFC North title. Their main concern is at running back, but without a solid starter all year at that position, they still won it all, so James Starks establishing himself or Ryan Grant re-establishing himself would be a bonus. The Chicago Bears actually won the North last year and had home field in the NFC title game, but Jay Cutler left the partisans wondering if he quit on them when he left the game with a knee injury. Whether he did or not, the bad taste in Chicago fans' mouths won't be any better this year. Their defense is aging, and the Bears will have some genuine competition for a wild-card from, of all places, Detroit. Believe it, Lions fans, your team is a playoff contender. Their defense is downright scary; now keep QB Matthew Stafford and RB Jahvid Best upright for the whole season and you might be able to make plans for January football. Donovan McNabb walks into his second straight rebuilding project in Minnesota, and sadly, it will probably end the same way for him there as it did in DC last season.
The NFC South may have the best division race in pro football. The New Orleans Saints came back to reality last year, first by finishing behind Atlanta in the division, then losing to 7-9 Seattle in the playoffs. Now, the Saints have to contend not only with the Falcons, but also young-and-hungry Tampa Bay. Will the Bucs and Falcons keep up with the run-and-gun Saints? Not this year, but one of them will get a wild-card. One team that won't have to worry about competing for the division is Carolina, forced to rush a rookie QB into the starting job for the 2nd year in a row, in this case Cam Newton. Hopefully, he can avoid the "instant bust" label placed on Jimmy Clausen last year.
And then there's the NFC West, once again the Worst Division in Football. Yes, Seattle stunned the Saints in the playoffs, but they still won the division at 7-9. With Sam Bradford's progression in St. Louis, it won't be that bad this year, as the Rams should at least get above .500 and take the division. Seattle lost Hasselbeck to free agency and Tarvaris Jackson is not the answer (funny, didn't I just say Hasselbeck wasn't the answer for his new team? oh well). Kevin Kolb gets his 2nd chance to shine in Arizona, but I don't think it happens right away. Jim Harbaugh steps into the 49ers job backing Alex Smith, but by Week 10, he may wish he could suit up himself.
So to recap, here's my rough guess at how 2011 plays out in the NFL:
AFC East: NY Jets 13-3*, New England 11-5*, Miami 6-10, Buffalo 4-12
AFC South: Houston 10-6*, Indianapolis 9-7, Tennessee 6-10, Jacksonville 4-12
AFC North: Pittsburgh 12-4*, Baltimore 11-5*, Cleveland 8-8, Cincinnati 2-14
AFC West: San Diego 10-6*, Kansas City 9-7, Oakland 7-9, Denver 5-11
NFC East: Philadelphia 11-5*, NY Giants 9-7, Dallas 7-9, Washington 5-11
NFC South: New Orleans 12-4*, Atlanta 10-6*, Tampa Bay 10-6, Carolina 4-12
NFC North: Green Bay 12-4*, Chicago 10-6*, Detroit 9-7, Minnesota 5-11
NFC West: St. Louis 9-7*, Arizona 7-9, San Francisco 6-10, Seattle 3-13
Why do I make such a statement? Simple. As I've said here before, the lockout was about one thing, specifically one person: DeMaurice Smith. He was out to make a name for himself in sports labor circles, and how do you generally do that? By causing a major work stoppage. Think about it... why do we know Donald Fehr and Billy Hunter? Why do we take them seriously? Because Fehr wiped out the 1994 World Series, and Hunter wiped out half a 1998-99 NBA season. Yes, the late Gene Upshaw presided over a long period of labor peace in the NFL, but that was preceded by a strike in 1987 that wiped out one week of games and led to replacement players for several more, not to mention years of anti-trust lawsuits. Therefore, when DeMaurice Smith took over the NFLPA, he had one goal: cause a major work stoppage and make a name for himself. Smith immediately began proclaiming that there would be a major work stoppage when the collective bargaining agreement expired. Last season, he told players to save their game checks so they could get through a cancelled 2011 season. He played his major move on day 1, decertifying the union and taking the NFL into a protracted court case that would likely swallow the entire season whole.
Except it didn't. The NFL dodged and parried through the early court actions, sat down with the players and worked out a deal that everyone liked, and despite Smith's initial rhetoric that there would be no deal and later hints that the players might shoot it down, peace was established. The total carnage: One preseason game. Nothing that upset any casual NFL fan's apple cart; the preseason went on as scheduled, drafts were held on time, rosters were trimmed this week, the show goes on. Smith wanted to make a name for himself... instead, rookie QB Terrelle Pryor didn't even heed his advice to appeal the 5-game suspension dropped on him by the NFL for his Ohio State shenanigans. Smith's one goal, to make a name for himself by being linked to a major work stoppage failed. When his name gets brought up over some players union snafu weeks or months from now, most NFL fans will say, "Who?" Therefore, the owners won. Play ball...
So how does this season shape up? Well, Rex Ryan again is proclaiming the Jets to be a Super Bowl team, and after 2 straight AFC Championship Game appearances, they are certainly contenders. However, they know they need to finish ahead of the Patriots to get home field advantage in the playoffs. Being road warriors the last 2 years could only take them so far, and despite winning 2 of 3 over the Pats last year (including the playoffs), conventional wisdom still says the Patriots are the better team, by virtue of those past Super Bowl rings and more recent division championships. The Jets lost Jason Taylor and Shaun Ellis on defense, and replaced one #17 with off-the-field issues (Braylon Edwards) with a #17 who just got out of jail (Plaxico Burress). Meanwhile, New England brings in Chad Ochocinco (and Ellis) and keeps all those role players who frustrated opposing teams all year long en route to a 14-2 record in 2010.
Who wins the AFC East and gets that home-field advantage? Well, I AM a Jets fan... after knocking on the door last year, they kick it in this season. Tom Brady is getting on in years and opposing defenses are realizing that if you rattle him by knocking him down a few times, he's not as sharp. The Detroit Lions made him look awful in a recent preseason game; other D-lines should follow their (and the Jets) lead. Miami seems to be in a constant state of rebuilding, always a couple players shy of putting it all together, so the best they can do is 8-8. Buffalo... well, they still have a team. That's good, right?
The AFC South has been thrown into a state of flux by Peyton Manning's neck issues. At this point, you have to figure the Colts will be starting someone else at QB for the first time since 1997, at least for the first couple weeks, and that may not look pretty. The door is open for another team to grab the early lead and ride it to a division title. If they can put it all together this season, that team is the Houston Texans. They disappointed last year, so the pressure is on Matt Schaub, Aryan Foster, Andre Johnson, and company to win the games they lost at the wire in 2010. If Houston turns the corner, they win the AFC South, with the Colts repeating last year's early struggles before contending for the wild-card. Matt Hasselbeck is not the answer in Tennessee; expect Jake Locker to start sooner than later. Jacksonville... well, they still have a team... although maybe not for much longer.
The AFC North always seems to come down to the Ravens and Steelers, and this season will be no exception. Baltimore nearly stopped Pittsburgh's Super Bowl run in the playoffs last year, but the Steelers prevailed en route to the AFC title, and this year they have Big Ben for the full season (barring injury, of course). The North is Pittsburgh's to lose, and if by some chance they do, the Ravens will step right in; otherwise, it's another wild-card for them. Cleveland is starting to make real progress with Colt McCoy and last year's pleasant surprise Peyton Hillis, but they still have a way to go. The Bengals are not going anywhere, which will send Marvin Lewis to the unemployment line at year's end.
It's hard to get a fix on the AFC West. San Diego should be the best team in that division, but they underachieved last year, starting 2-5 and not regrouping fully in time to make the playoffs. Does Ryan Mathews' maturation keep the offense on top of the league rankings and will that get the Chargers back to the postseason? It should. Kansas City won the AFC West last year, but you also had to wonder about them from week to week. They will certainly contend, but this time they fall short. Denver is a mess; the Broncos almost traded Kyle Orton so they could put God's Gift to Football (Tim Tebow) in the starting job that he was apparently anointed for. Then, they realized Tebow's not a good QB. However, the supporting cast isn't all that spectacular, either. Oakland... yeah, I'm not gonna say anything bad about the Raiders... because one of their fans might shoot me.
The NFC East is the Eagles' to lose. That's what happens when you acquire big names like Ronnie Brown, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Nnamdi Asomugha, sign Michael Vick to a $100 million deal and label yourselves a "dream team." This makes 2 teams in Philadelphia whose season will be judged as championship-or-bust. Fortunately for the Eagles, they don't have serious competition in their division. The Giants didn't get anyone of note in the offseason, have to deal with a whiny Osi Umenyiora, and a grumbling fan base. Their ceiling is 9-7, and it may cost Tom Coughlin his job. Dallas with Tony Romo is... Dallas with Tony Romo. They always look good on paper, but they never live up to the hype. Meanwhile, Mike Shanahan's Redskins are pretty much in the same vicious cycle of rebuilding that his former team in Denver is in.
The defending Super Bowl champs from Green Bay should cruise to the NFC North title. Their main concern is at running back, but without a solid starter all year at that position, they still won it all, so James Starks establishing himself or Ryan Grant re-establishing himself would be a bonus. The Chicago Bears actually won the North last year and had home field in the NFC title game, but Jay Cutler left the partisans wondering if he quit on them when he left the game with a knee injury. Whether he did or not, the bad taste in Chicago fans' mouths won't be any better this year. Their defense is aging, and the Bears will have some genuine competition for a wild-card from, of all places, Detroit. Believe it, Lions fans, your team is a playoff contender. Their defense is downright scary; now keep QB Matthew Stafford and RB Jahvid Best upright for the whole season and you might be able to make plans for January football. Donovan McNabb walks into his second straight rebuilding project in Minnesota, and sadly, it will probably end the same way for him there as it did in DC last season.
The NFC South may have the best division race in pro football. The New Orleans Saints came back to reality last year, first by finishing behind Atlanta in the division, then losing to 7-9 Seattle in the playoffs. Now, the Saints have to contend not only with the Falcons, but also young-and-hungry Tampa Bay. Will the Bucs and Falcons keep up with the run-and-gun Saints? Not this year, but one of them will get a wild-card. One team that won't have to worry about competing for the division is Carolina, forced to rush a rookie QB into the starting job for the 2nd year in a row, in this case Cam Newton. Hopefully, he can avoid the "instant bust" label placed on Jimmy Clausen last year.
And then there's the NFC West, once again the Worst Division in Football. Yes, Seattle stunned the Saints in the playoffs, but they still won the division at 7-9. With Sam Bradford's progression in St. Louis, it won't be that bad this year, as the Rams should at least get above .500 and take the division. Seattle lost Hasselbeck to free agency and Tarvaris Jackson is not the answer (funny, didn't I just say Hasselbeck wasn't the answer for his new team? oh well). Kevin Kolb gets his 2nd chance to shine in Arizona, but I don't think it happens right away. Jim Harbaugh steps into the 49ers job backing Alex Smith, but by Week 10, he may wish he could suit up himself.
So to recap, here's my rough guess at how 2011 plays out in the NFL:
AFC East: NY Jets 13-3*, New England 11-5*, Miami 6-10, Buffalo 4-12
AFC South: Houston 10-6*, Indianapolis 9-7, Tennessee 6-10, Jacksonville 4-12
AFC North: Pittsburgh 12-4*, Baltimore 11-5*, Cleveland 8-8, Cincinnati 2-14
AFC West: San Diego 10-6*, Kansas City 9-7, Oakland 7-9, Denver 5-11
NFC East: Philadelphia 11-5*, NY Giants 9-7, Dallas 7-9, Washington 5-11
NFC South: New Orleans 12-4*, Atlanta 10-6*, Tampa Bay 10-6, Carolina 4-12
NFC North: Green Bay 12-4*, Chicago 10-6*, Detroit 9-7, Minnesota 5-11
NFC West: St. Louis 9-7*, Arizona 7-9, San Francisco 6-10, Seattle 3-13
Labels: football
posted by Dave | 2:24 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home