Time to Make the Picks
Well here we are on Labor Day and already Syracuse fans have been treated to yet another gut-wrenching loss. The response has depended on whether you're a "glass is half-full" or "glass is half-empty" type. If you're optimistic about the Doug Marrone era which opened on Saturday, you saw a great effort, you were impressed by the enthusiasm and poise of Greg Paulus at QB (for the first 59 minutes, anyway), and you think the Orange football program took a big step forward despite the 23-20 OT loss to Minnesota. And how about that almost-full Carrier Dome!
Of course, if you are one of those types, in Syracuse you are outnumbered by Average Syracusan, who lives to be negative. Their take is that Marrone blew the game in the 1st quarter by going for a field goal instead of going for it on 4th-and-1 at the Gophers' 10. Never mind that this was a sure 3 instead of a possible zero that would have resulted in the game never making it to overtime. And as for Paulus, he is clearly a joke, throwing the game away on an ill-advised pass into the end zone in OT that resulted in an interception and gave Minnesota a chance to win. He never should have come back to Syracuse and we're wasting a whole season on this guy. This Saturday at Penn State will be a debacle and the Dome will be back to half-empty for Northwestern.
I, of course, am firmly in the positive camp. Let's face it, if you're a SU fan, the Orange will rip your heart out at some point. Let's just hope we got it out of the way early this year. Now how do I think Syracuse will do on the season? Well, there were lots of positives and lots of things that haven't changed from last year (all the O-line miscues and dropped passes, most notably). Still, I think there should be some improvement. I say 4-8, 2-5 in the Big East and maybe we could steal one (Northwestern or another BE game) and end up 5-7. It's only year one and miracles don't happen overnight.
Meanwhile, the NFL is about to kick off for the year on Thursday, and as usual most teams think they've got a good shot at the Super Bowl or at least the playoffs. Unless, of course, you're a Detroit Lions fan. Or a Raiders fan. In the case of the Lions, at least you got rid of Matt Millen so maybe there's optimism. The reason the Raiders are a joke is going to be around presumably until he dies, that being Al Davis. Then you have the Vikings, who got Brett Favre out of retirement but some on the team don't want him, and you have the Eagles, who got Michael Vick fresh from the slammer and much of the city and fanbase doesn't want him. And I don't think I've ever seen a situation where not one, but two offensive coordinators got their pink slips before the season even began. Buffalo and Tampa Bay apparently believe that final cuts apply to coaches as well as players.
So who's going to emerge supreme in the NFL this year? Well, here's how I see each division winding up, and remember I do this with about as much research as I do with my movie reviews, which is to say not a heckuva lot...
AFC East: Since the Patriots have Tom Brady back, you have to pick them to win the division. The Dolphins are out to show they aren't a one-year wonder, but they have about the same level of talent as the Jets and Bills, so it's going to be a tight 3-team race for one of the wild-card spots all season long. Mark Sanchez will be the key to the Jets season, T.O.'s T-O-E may determine Buffalo's end result (not to mention the results of the new OC), and the Dolphins made good use of what they had last year in inventing the "Wildcat" formation but now that everyone uses it, do they fall backward? I say yes; the Jets and Bills go 9-7, Miami 7-9.
AFC North: The Steelers are the defending world champs and there's really no reason to think that they take a step back this year. That leaves Baltimore hoping that Joe Flacco doesn't have a sophomore jinx and that their defense isn't getting too old in order to have a shot at a wild card. Cleveland could put together a decent season in Eric Mangini's first year as head coach... or he could have picked the wrong starting QB and everything could go down the crapper again. Meanwhile in Cincinnati, "Ocho Cinco" will mean two things, 1) the name of the star wide receiver, and 2) two guesses in Spanish for how many Bengals will get arrested this year. "Ocho"? "Cinco"?
AFC South: Has the Colts' window closed with a new coaching staff, the departure of Marvin Harrison, and Peyton Manning starting to get on in years? If so, this throws things wide open, as everyone else has question marks as well. Tennessee either needs Kerry Collins to coax one more good year out of his aging arm or Vince Young to have found all of his marbles after losing them last year. Jacksonville has QB questions as well, but that could be the last piece to a playoff puzzle. Houston has never been to the playoffs, and you get the feeling that all they need to do is to learn how to handle the pressure of late-season games that mean something and they'll finally get to January. I think the Titans skid to the basement, the Colts and Jags battle for the division, with the loser competing with the Texans for a wild card.
AFC West: This comes down to the Chargers and Broncos, and while both teams have the potential to be better than the 8-8 they both put up last year, I don't think they will be. 9-7 gets one of these teams the division, the other stays home for the playoffs, just like last year. Kansas City is rebuilding, and the Raiders are... well, the Raiders.
So all in all, I say the Patriots, Steelers, Jags, and Chargers win divisions, and the wild cards go to Baltimore and Indy.
NFC East: It's the Giants' division to lose, and I know many in New York think Eli Manning is just the guy to lose it but he'll find a way to come through when it counts and get Big Blue to January. That defense is too good not to win a division. Speaking of coming through when it counts, Tony Romo doesn't, hasn't, and won't this year. The Cowboys plunge to the division basement and Jerry Jones may choose not to wait until after the season to put that head coach succession plan into action. Philly and Washington compete for a wild-card; it goes to the Eagles if the McNabb-Vick situation doesn't turn into a total debacle.
NFC North: I know a lot of people in Minnesota (though not a sizable majority) think that the addition of Favre is the last piece of the puzzle and they're going to make a run at the Super Bowl. I give you the Jets' 2008 season as proof that the Vikings will not. Now that Aaron Rodgers has settled into the starting gig in Green Bay, the Packers will be right in the mix, and the Bears may have improved at QB but it's always defense that carries Chicago. Also, Detroit plays in this division... I have to mention them somewhere. The Packers win the division, the Bears and Vikes flirt with .500 and fall short of playoff spots.
NFC South: Atlanta has to be the favorite. They have a great team that is only getting better. Carolina always seems to hang around in contention, but Steve Smith hasn't really lived up to the hype he created in their Super Bowl year, which is already 6 years ago. Their window may be closing after their home playoff loss last year, which could give Tampa Bay a chance to sneak into the playoffs, but just like in Buffalo you have an unknown with a new offensive coordinator at the start of the season. I really wonder how effective such a drastic change before the season opener can be. New Orleans has a new OC as well (Doug Marrone being the old one), and they're still waiting for Reggie Bush to be the Reggie Bush they hoped they were getting when they drafted him.
NFC West: Largely acknowledged as the worst division in football, and that distinction may not have changed even with Arizona's unlikely run to the Super Bowl last year. Seattle and St. Louis are in rebuilding modes so they are likely to be cannon fodder for the rest of the division. San Francisco has potential, and Mike Singletary is the type of coach that makes you want to run through a wall for him... because he'll throw you through the wall if you don't. Playing on the West Coast, a lot of people might not know about them, and that's why if I have to pick a surprise playoff team this year, I'll take the Niners. However, the Cardinals are the class of this division and with their new-found playoff experience, they'll avoid the December swoon that hit them last year and cruise to the division title.
So to recap... division titles go to the Giants, Packers, Falcons, and Cardinals. Wild card teams will be Philadelphia and San Francisco.
And lastly, I always mention my high school and college alma maters, West Genesee and Susquehanna. West Genny followed up their '07 state title with a trip to the sectional final last year, and my expectations for them are simple: just make it to sectionals. That's what I hope for every year, and lately I haven't been disappointed. As for the Crusaders, my expectations are similarly low but seemingly unreachable year after year... is it too much to ask to have a WINNING season? Susquehanna hasn't finished above .500 since 2000, the season after I graduated from there. Just go 6-4. Please.
Of course, if you are one of those types, in Syracuse you are outnumbered by Average Syracusan, who lives to be negative. Their take is that Marrone blew the game in the 1st quarter by going for a field goal instead of going for it on 4th-and-1 at the Gophers' 10. Never mind that this was a sure 3 instead of a possible zero that would have resulted in the game never making it to overtime. And as for Paulus, he is clearly a joke, throwing the game away on an ill-advised pass into the end zone in OT that resulted in an interception and gave Minnesota a chance to win. He never should have come back to Syracuse and we're wasting a whole season on this guy. This Saturday at Penn State will be a debacle and the Dome will be back to half-empty for Northwestern.
I, of course, am firmly in the positive camp. Let's face it, if you're a SU fan, the Orange will rip your heart out at some point. Let's just hope we got it out of the way early this year. Now how do I think Syracuse will do on the season? Well, there were lots of positives and lots of things that haven't changed from last year (all the O-line miscues and dropped passes, most notably). Still, I think there should be some improvement. I say 4-8, 2-5 in the Big East and maybe we could steal one (Northwestern or another BE game) and end up 5-7. It's only year one and miracles don't happen overnight.
Meanwhile, the NFL is about to kick off for the year on Thursday, and as usual most teams think they've got a good shot at the Super Bowl or at least the playoffs. Unless, of course, you're a Detroit Lions fan. Or a Raiders fan. In the case of the Lions, at least you got rid of Matt Millen so maybe there's optimism. The reason the Raiders are a joke is going to be around presumably until he dies, that being Al Davis. Then you have the Vikings, who got Brett Favre out of retirement but some on the team don't want him, and you have the Eagles, who got Michael Vick fresh from the slammer and much of the city and fanbase doesn't want him. And I don't think I've ever seen a situation where not one, but two offensive coordinators got their pink slips before the season even began. Buffalo and Tampa Bay apparently believe that final cuts apply to coaches as well as players.
So who's going to emerge supreme in the NFL this year? Well, here's how I see each division winding up, and remember I do this with about as much research as I do with my movie reviews, which is to say not a heckuva lot...
AFC East: Since the Patriots have Tom Brady back, you have to pick them to win the division. The Dolphins are out to show they aren't a one-year wonder, but they have about the same level of talent as the Jets and Bills, so it's going to be a tight 3-team race for one of the wild-card spots all season long. Mark Sanchez will be the key to the Jets season, T.O.'s T-O-E may determine Buffalo's end result (not to mention the results of the new OC), and the Dolphins made good use of what they had last year in inventing the "Wildcat" formation but now that everyone uses it, do they fall backward? I say yes; the Jets and Bills go 9-7, Miami 7-9.
AFC North: The Steelers are the defending world champs and there's really no reason to think that they take a step back this year. That leaves Baltimore hoping that Joe Flacco doesn't have a sophomore jinx and that their defense isn't getting too old in order to have a shot at a wild card. Cleveland could put together a decent season in Eric Mangini's first year as head coach... or he could have picked the wrong starting QB and everything could go down the crapper again. Meanwhile in Cincinnati, "Ocho Cinco" will mean two things, 1) the name of the star wide receiver, and 2) two guesses in Spanish for how many Bengals will get arrested this year. "Ocho"? "Cinco"?
AFC South: Has the Colts' window closed with a new coaching staff, the departure of Marvin Harrison, and Peyton Manning starting to get on in years? If so, this throws things wide open, as everyone else has question marks as well. Tennessee either needs Kerry Collins to coax one more good year out of his aging arm or Vince Young to have found all of his marbles after losing them last year. Jacksonville has QB questions as well, but that could be the last piece to a playoff puzzle. Houston has never been to the playoffs, and you get the feeling that all they need to do is to learn how to handle the pressure of late-season games that mean something and they'll finally get to January. I think the Titans skid to the basement, the Colts and Jags battle for the division, with the loser competing with the Texans for a wild card.
AFC West: This comes down to the Chargers and Broncos, and while both teams have the potential to be better than the 8-8 they both put up last year, I don't think they will be. 9-7 gets one of these teams the division, the other stays home for the playoffs, just like last year. Kansas City is rebuilding, and the Raiders are... well, the Raiders.
So all in all, I say the Patriots, Steelers, Jags, and Chargers win divisions, and the wild cards go to Baltimore and Indy.
NFC East: It's the Giants' division to lose, and I know many in New York think Eli Manning is just the guy to lose it but he'll find a way to come through when it counts and get Big Blue to January. That defense is too good not to win a division. Speaking of coming through when it counts, Tony Romo doesn't, hasn't, and won't this year. The Cowboys plunge to the division basement and Jerry Jones may choose not to wait until after the season to put that head coach succession plan into action. Philly and Washington compete for a wild-card; it goes to the Eagles if the McNabb-Vick situation doesn't turn into a total debacle.
NFC North: I know a lot of people in Minnesota (though not a sizable majority) think that the addition of Favre is the last piece of the puzzle and they're going to make a run at the Super Bowl. I give you the Jets' 2008 season as proof that the Vikings will not. Now that Aaron Rodgers has settled into the starting gig in Green Bay, the Packers will be right in the mix, and the Bears may have improved at QB but it's always defense that carries Chicago. Also, Detroit plays in this division... I have to mention them somewhere. The Packers win the division, the Bears and Vikes flirt with .500 and fall short of playoff spots.
NFC South: Atlanta has to be the favorite. They have a great team that is only getting better. Carolina always seems to hang around in contention, but Steve Smith hasn't really lived up to the hype he created in their Super Bowl year, which is already 6 years ago. Their window may be closing after their home playoff loss last year, which could give Tampa Bay a chance to sneak into the playoffs, but just like in Buffalo you have an unknown with a new offensive coordinator at the start of the season. I really wonder how effective such a drastic change before the season opener can be. New Orleans has a new OC as well (Doug Marrone being the old one), and they're still waiting for Reggie Bush to be the Reggie Bush they hoped they were getting when they drafted him.
NFC West: Largely acknowledged as the worst division in football, and that distinction may not have changed even with Arizona's unlikely run to the Super Bowl last year. Seattle and St. Louis are in rebuilding modes so they are likely to be cannon fodder for the rest of the division. San Francisco has potential, and Mike Singletary is the type of coach that makes you want to run through a wall for him... because he'll throw you through the wall if you don't. Playing on the West Coast, a lot of people might not know about them, and that's why if I have to pick a surprise playoff team this year, I'll take the Niners. However, the Cardinals are the class of this division and with their new-found playoff experience, they'll avoid the December swoon that hit them last year and cruise to the division title.
So to recap... division titles go to the Giants, Packers, Falcons, and Cardinals. Wild card teams will be Philadelphia and San Francisco.
And lastly, I always mention my high school and college alma maters, West Genesee and Susquehanna. West Genny followed up their '07 state title with a trip to the sectional final last year, and my expectations for them are simple: just make it to sectionals. That's what I hope for every year, and lately I haven't been disappointed. As for the Crusaders, my expectations are similarly low but seemingly unreachable year after year... is it too much to ask to have a WINNING season? Susquehanna hasn't finished above .500 since 2000, the season after I graduated from there. Just go 6-4. Please.
Labels: football
posted by Dave | 2:18 PM
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