Baseball 2008

So... March has not been a kind month to this sports fan. SU once again failed to make it into the NCAA Tournament, only this time we didn't deserve to go. Then, they choked away a 22-point lead in the last 14 minutes of the NIT quarterfinal against UMass AT HOME and saw their season come to a lousy end. My Buffalo Sabres underachieved all season, lost more games in OT than any other team in hockey, probably lost more games in which they outshot the opposition than any other team in hockey, and on the same night that SU went in the tank, Buffalo turned a 3-2 lead against Ottawa with 6 minutes to play into a 6-3 loss. Then for good measure they went out a few nights later and turned a 3-1 3rd period lead over Montreal into a 4-3 OT loss. At least SU got to play in the postseason; this will not be happening in Buffalo.

Thank goodness baseball is about to start and I can start rooting for my Mets again.

Yes, I know that the last time we saw them, they too were choking big-time. In fact, go ahead and get all of your "Mets choke" jokes out of your system now... I'll wait...

Spring is about optimism... of course, Spring needs to get here for that to happen, but the calendar says Spring and baseball starts tonight (the 2 games in Japan notwithstanding). So I'm ready to make predictions about this season's baseball goings-on.

We'll start in the division where my Mets reside, the NL East. This is pretty much a pitched battle between the Phillies and Mets. Last season was only the tip of the iceberg for this rivalry, as I wrote about a few weeks ago. Now I was watching ESPN this morning, and John Kruk predicted that the BRAVES will win the NL East. John Kruk is an IDIOT. But on further review, ESPN's Jayson Stark is picking the Braves to WIN IT ALL. And I'm sure disgruntled former Mets GM Steve Phillips is also all in for the Braves. These guys were saying the Braves would win the NL East last August when they were 10 games out. Apparently they must be stockholders or something. Let me let you all in on a little something: ATLANTA HAS NO CHANCE OF WINNING THE NL EAST. Not with 2 teams ahead of them who are so much better, not with a starting rotation full of 40-somethings and broken-down pitchers. Let's recap: John Smoltz- 40-plus and on the DL, Chuck James- on the DL, Tom Glavine- 40-plus, Mike Hampton- will be on the DL within weeks, because it's inevitable, Tim Hudson- was on the DL last year as well. No division title here, folks.

So, in this corner... it's big Ryan Howard, big-mouthed Jimmy Rollins, Met-killer Pat Burrell, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and the rest of the Fightin' Phils of the Schuylkill. In the other corner, it's a pissed-off (for him) Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Pedro Martinez and the rest of the Amazin' Mets of the thankfully-soon-to-be-demolished Shea Stadium. Oh, and some guy from Minnesota named Johan. Yeah, I hear he's a pretty decent pitcher...

So who am I picking? Der, I'm picking the Mets. But why? Besides the fact that they ARE my team, these guys know the urgency of the situation. They know they're good, they know how BAD they were the last 3 weeks of 2007, and they know they cannot let it happen again, because otherwise manager Willie Randolph and a lot of other guys are gonna lose jobs. Unfortunately, the whole bullpen is back from last year, except for Matt Wise taking over Aaron Sele's long relief role. The bullpen created this whole mess with their inability to get anyone out when it mattered. GM Omar Minaya did not take my advice (blow the whole thing up and start over) and I guess I just have to cross my fingers every time Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoeneweis come in to try to get us out of a jam. However... the Phillies have Brad Lidge for a closer. When he gets off the DL. Ahem. Take the Mets.

OK, now the rest of baseball... the NL Central will once again be between the Cubs and Brewers. The Cubs will hope for a full productive season from Alfonso Soriano, a better season from their pitching (Kerry Wood as the closer? eeeeeeeeeek), and an outfielder from Japan named Fukudome (be careful how you pronounce that one). The Brewers have the offense (Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Bill Hall), but their pitching is also creaky and hoping for a full season of Ben Sheets is like hoping for a full season of Kerry Wood as your closer. The Brewers will win 90 games and take the Central.

Colorado arrived last season with their insane 21 of 22 streak from the end of the regular season through the NL playoffs. They're THAT good and only getting better. But they still play in Colorado and have to deal with the fact that no All-Star pitcher of any merit would ever play in Colorado. Arizona is also young and they got even better by picking up Dan Haren from Oakland. The Dodgers have promising young players of their own, Andruw Jones thanks to free agency, and Joe Torre as the manager. And don't forget the Padres, with Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Adrian Gonzalez... I don't think the Padres have enough to stay in the race, so it's a 3-team struggle. This is the toughest division to pick, but I'm going with Arizona on the strength of their pitching. The wild-card comes down to the Phillies, Rockies, and Dodgers, with Colorado prevailing. So really... it winds up being a repeat of last year in the NL... that is, if the last 17 games of the Mets' season had turned out better.

The AL East... easiest division to pick. The Red Sox will cruise to the division title. They are the best team in baseball, the defending champs, and scary as it sounds, they're only getting BETTER. The kids (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz) have only scratched the surface of what they're going to do. Josh Beckett's early-season stint on the DL may lead to a slow start, but with Boston's offense, it won't last long. Second place will be a battle between the Yankees and Blue Jays. Toronto has the talent to take 2nd for the first time in ages, with Vernon Wells certain to come back from an off year, joining Alex Rios and a potent offense, even if Scott Rolen spends a large chunk of the year on the shelf. Of course, the Yanks can score runs as well, with A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui, Robinson Cano, et al. However, the Blue Jays have more pitching. I'll take Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin Magowan, and Shawn Marcum over Chien Ming-Wang, Mike Mussina, and Phil Hughes any day. Mariano is fading, Joba's not a closer, he's a displaced starter (and look how well that ultimately worked out for Aaron Heilman), and the Blue Jays have Jeremy Accardo AND B.J. Ryan if he can get healthy. Toronto 2nd, the Yanks 3rd and OUT of the money... haha, Yanks, money, get it? Suck on that, Hank Steinbrenner.

Oh, and this will finally be the year that the Orioles lose 100 games, and the Nationals will outdraw them. And Peter Angelos will probably sue Major League Baseball for ruining his franchise.

The AL Central is loaded, with Detroit and Cleveland battling tooth and nail all season for the division, loser gets the wild card. I'll give the edge to Detroit based on pitching, even if Dontrelle Willis doesn't pan out, his fellow ex-Marlin Miguel Cabrera WILL pan out, making a great offense even better. The White Sox will finish 3rd, just enough to allow Ozzie Guillen to keep his job, for now.

I've heard a lot of talk about Seattle being on the rise in the AL West. Getting Erik Bedard for practically nothing (Peter Angelos at his best) doesn't make you a playoff team overnight, but with Bedard and Felix Hernandez in the rotation, they have a good nucleus forming. The hitting's a little thin, and I don't think Adrian Beltre's ever going to come close to his fluke "walk" year in LA when he hit 48 homers. No, the class of the AL West is still the Angels, but they'll have to overcome not having John Lackey or Kelvim Escobar in the rotation to start the season. Escobar's career may be over, a huge setback. The Angels can hit but they'll have to string together enough arms to stay ahead of Seattle. I think they can and will.

So there's your predictions for this year, with the first pitch in Washington's new ballpark just minutes away... and another ESPN analyst (Eric Young this time) just picked the Braves for the World Series. Can we get some sort of investigation going? George Mitchell's free now, he could do it...